{"id":1075,"date":"2026-06-18T02:01:36","date_gmt":"2026-06-18T02:01:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.phantram.online\/tinh-phan-tram-tang-truong-doanh-thu\/"},"modified":"2026-07-07T09:35:59","modified_gmt":"2026-07-07T09:35:59","slug":"tinh-phan-tram-tang-truong-doanh-thu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/1phantram.com\/blog\/tinh-phan-tram-tang-truong-doanh-thu\/","title":{"rendered":"T\u00ednh Ph\u1ea7n Tr\u0103m T\u0103ng Tr\u01b0\u1edfng Doanh Thu Th\u00e1ng Qu\u00fd N\u0103m"},"content":{"rendered":"

B\u1ea1n m\u1edf Shopee Seller Center s\u00e1ng nay, th\u1ea5y doanh thu th\u00e1ng tr\u01b0\u1edbc l\u00e0 142 tri\u1ec7u, th\u00e1ng n\u00e0y 168 tri\u1ec7u. C\u00e2u h\u1ecfi ti\u1ebfp theo g\u1ea7n nh\u01b0 lu\u00f4n l\u00e0: “T\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng v\u1eady l\u00e0 t\u1ed1t hay t\u1ec7?”. C\u00e2u tr\u1ea3 l\u1eddi n\u1eb1m \u1edf con s\u1ed1 ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng doanh thu<\/strong> \u2014 ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 m\u00e0 m\u1ecdi founder, ch\u1ee7 c\u1eeda h\u00e0ng F&B, hay ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111ang ch\u1ea1y m\u1ed9t SaaS Vi\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ec1u ph\u1ea3i n\u1eafm ch\u1eafc n\u1ebfu mu\u1ed1n bi\u1ebft business \u0111ang \u0111i l\u00ean hay ch\u1ec9 \u0111ang ch\u1ea1y theo qu\u00e1n t\u00ednh.<\/p>\n

V\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 l\u00e0 r\u1ea5t nhi\u1ec1u ng\u01b0\u1eddi t\u00ednh sai. C\u00f3 ng\u01b0\u1eddi so doanh thu th\u00e1ng 2 v\u1edbi th\u00e1ng 1 m\u00e0 qu\u00ean th\u00e1ng 2 \u00edt h\u01a1n 3 ng\u00e0y l\u00e0m vi\u1ec7c. C\u00f3 ng\u01b0\u1eddi so qu\u00fd 4 v\u1edbi qu\u00fd 3 m\u00e0 b\u1ecf qua m\u00f9a T\u1ebft. C\u00f3 ng\u01b0\u1eddi t\u00ednh CAGR 3 n\u0103m nh\u01b0ng l\u1ea5y g\u1ed1c l\u00e0 n\u0103m Covid, ra con s\u1ed1 \u1ea3o. H\u1ec7 qu\u1ea3: quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh nh\u1eadp h\u00e0ng, thu\u00ea nh\u00e2n s\u1ef1, m\u1edf chi nh\u00e1nh \u0111\u1ec1u l\u1ec7ch theo.<\/p>\n

B\u00e0i n\u00e0y g\u00f3i g\u1ecdn m\u1ecdi th\u1ee9 b\u1ea1n c\u1ea7n: c\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c chu\u1ea9n, c\u00e1ch ph\u00e2n bi\u1ec7t MoM\/QoQ\/YoY\/CAGR, b\u1ea3ng benchmark theo ng\u00e0nh t\u1ea1i Vi\u1ec7t Nam, l\u1ed7i th\u01b0\u1eddng g\u1eb7p, v\u00e0 m\u1eb9o Excel\/Google Sheets \u0111\u1ec3 d\u00e1n v\u00e0o file l\u00e0 ch\u1ea1y.<\/p>\n

\n\ud83d\udc49 T\u00ednh nhanh kh\u00f4ng c\u1ea7n c\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c:<\/strong> N\u1ebfu b\u1ea1n ch\u1ec9 c\u1ea7n k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 ngay, c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 t\u1ea1i 1phantram.com<\/strong><\/a> h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 t\u00ednh ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m t\u0103ng\/gi\u1ea3m, % thay \u0111\u1ed5i gi\u1eefa hai s\u1ed1, % c\u1ee7a t\u1ed5ng \u2014 mi\u1ec5n ph\u00ed, kh\u00f4ng qu\u1ea3ng c\u00e1o, d\u00f9ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c tr\u00ean \u0111i\u1ec7n tho\u1ea1i.\n<\/div>\n

1. Ph\u1ea7n Tr\u0103m T\u0103ng Tr\u01b0\u1edfng Doanh Thu L\u00e0 G\u00ec V\u00e0 V\u00ec Sao Quan Tr\u1ecdng<\/h2>\n

1.1. \u0110\u1ecbnh ngh\u0129a ng\u1eafn g\u1ecdn<\/h3>\n

Ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng doanh thu (revenue growth rate) l\u00e0 t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n m\u1ee9c thay \u0111\u1ed5i doanh thu gi\u1eefa hai k\u1ef3. K\u1ef3 \u1edf \u0111\u00e2y c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0 th\u00e1ng, qu\u00fd, n\u0103m, ho\u1eb7c b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 kho\u1ea3ng th\u1eddi gian n\u00e0o b\u1ea1n ch\u1ecdn \u0111\u1ec3 so s\u00e1nh. \u0110\u01a1n v\u1ecb lu\u00f4n l\u00e0 %<\/strong>, d\u1ea5u c\u1ed9ng ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 t\u0103ng, d\u1ea5u tr\u1eeb ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 gi\u1ea3m.<\/p>\n

1.2. V\u00ec sao ch\u1ee7 shop v\u00e0 SME ph\u1ea3i \u0111o<\/h3>\n

Doanh thu tuy\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed1i (v\u00ed d\u1ee5 “th\u00e1ng n\u00e0y \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c 200 tri\u1ec7u”) kh\u00f4ng n\u00f3i l\u00ean xu h\u01b0\u1edbng. M\u1ed9t shop b\u00e1n 200 tri\u1ec7u\/th\u00e1ng \u0111\u1ec1u \u0111\u1eb7n 12 th\u00e1ng li\u1ec1n l\u00e0 d\u1ea5u hi\u1ec7u tr\u00ec tr\u1ec7, nh\u01b0ng m\u1ed9t shop t\u1eeb 50 tri\u1ec7u l\u00ean 200 tri\u1ec7u trong 6 th\u00e1ng l\u00e0 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng 4 l\u1ea7n. % t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng cho b\u1ea1n bi\u1ebft t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9, ch\u1ee9 kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 \u0111i\u1ec3m d\u1eebng.<\/p>\n

1.3. Ai c\u1ea7n con s\u1ed1 n\u00e0y nh\u1ea5t<\/h3>\n

Founder g\u1ecdi v\u1ed1n \u2014 nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 h\u1ecfi MoM growth \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean. Ch\u1ee7 c\u1eeda h\u00e0ng F&B \u2014 c\u1ea7n bi\u1ebft khi n\u00e0o m\u1edf chi nh\u00e1nh th\u1ee9 hai. Seller Shopee\/TikTok Shop \u2014 c\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 t\u1eebng \u0111\u1ee3t sale. Qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd SaaS \u2014 ph\u1ea3i b\u00e1o c\u00e1o YoY cho board. C\u00e1 nh\u00e2n l\u00e0m freelance \u2014 c\u1ea7n xem thu nh\u1eadp c\u00f3 t\u0103ng theo k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch kh\u00f4ng.<\/p>\n

2. C\u00f4ng Th\u1ee9c T\u00ednh Ph\u1ea7n Tr\u0103m T\u0103ng Tr\u01b0\u1edfng Doanh Thu Chu\u1ea9n<\/h2>\n

2.1. C\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c g\u1ed1c<\/h3>\n

C\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c kh\u00f4ng thay \u0111\u1ed5i d\u00f9 b\u1ea1n t\u00ednh th\u00e1ng, qu\u00fd hay n\u0103m:<\/p>\n

\n% T\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng = ((Doanh thu k\u1ef3 n\u00e0y \u2212 Doanh thu k\u1ef3 tr\u01b0\u1edbc) \/ Doanh thu k\u1ef3 tr\u01b0\u1edbc) \u00d7 100<\/strong>\n<\/p>\n

V\u00ed d\u1ee5 th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf: Shop b\u00e1n m\u1ef9 ph\u1ea9m tr\u00ean Shopee th\u00e1ng 5\/2026 doanh thu 85 tri\u1ec7u, th\u00e1ng 6\/2026 doanh thu 102 tri\u1ec7u.<\/p>\n

% T\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng = ((102 \u2212 85) \/ 85) \u00d7 100 = (17 \/ 85) \u00d7 100 = 20%<\/strong><\/p>\n

Th\u00e1ng 6 t\u0103ng 20% so v\u1edbi th\u00e1ng 5. N\u1ebfu c\u1ea7n \u00f4n l\u1ea1i n\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng ph\u00e9p t\u00ednh %, xem b\u00e0i c\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c t\u00ednh ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m<\/a> \u0111\u1ec3 hi\u1ec3u s\u00e2u h\u01a1n v\u1ec1 c\u00e1ch ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m v\u1eadn h\u00e0nh tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng v\u00e0o doanh thu.<\/p>\n

2.2. V\u00ec sao lu\u00f4n chia cho k\u1ef3 tr\u01b0\u1edbc, kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i k\u1ef3 n\u00e0y<\/h3>\n

\u0110\u00e2y l\u00e0 l\u1ed7i si\u00eau ph\u1ed5 bi\u1ebfn. K\u1ef3 tr\u01b0\u1edbc l\u00e0 baseline<\/em>, l\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec3m g\u1ed1c b\u1ea1n so s\u00e1nh. N\u1ebfu chia cho k\u1ef3 n\u00e0y, b\u1ea1n \u0111ang \u0111o “k\u1ef3 tr\u01b0\u1edbc nh\u1ecf h\u01a1n k\u1ef3 n\u00e0y bao nhi\u00eau %”, kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng. Hai con s\u1ed1 kh\u00e1c nhau ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n.<\/p>\n

V\u00ed d\u1ee5: Doanh thu t\u1eeb 100 l\u00ean 150. T\u00ednh \u0111\u00fang: (150-100)\/100 = 50%. T\u00ednh sai: (150-100)\/150 = 33%. L\u1ec7ch 17 \u0111i\u1ec3m %, \u0111\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ec3 b\u00e1o c\u00e1o sai cho c\u1ea3 board.<\/p>\n

2.3. Khi k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 ra \u00e2m<\/h3>\n

N\u1ebfu k\u1ef3 n\u00e0y th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n k\u1ef3 tr\u01b0\u1edbc, k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 l\u00e0 s\u1ed1 \u00e2m v\u00e0 \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng \u00e2m<\/em> \u2014 t\u1ee9c l\u00e0 gi\u1ea3m. V\u00ed d\u1ee5 doanh thu t\u1eeb 200 xu\u1ed1ng 170 tri\u1ec7u: ((170-200)\/200) \u00d7 100 = -15%. \u0110\u1eebng \u0111\u1ed5i sang d\u01b0\u01a1ng r\u1ed3i g\u1ecdi l\u00e0 “gi\u1ea3m 15%” trong b\u00e1o c\u00e1o \u2014 gi\u1eef d\u1ea5u \u00e2m \u0111\u1ec3 c\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c nh\u1ea5t qu\u00e1n khi t\u1ed5ng h\u1ee3p nhi\u1ec1u k\u1ef3.<\/p>\n

3. MoM, QoQ, YoY: Ba C\u00e1ch So S\u00e1nh Doanh Thu Kh\u00e1c Nhau<\/h2>\n

3.1. MoM \u2014 Month over Month<\/h3>\n

So th\u00e1ng n\u00e0y v\u1edbi th\u00e1ng tr\u01b0\u1edbc li\u1ec1n k\u1ec1. Ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p cho business c\u00f3 chu k\u1ef3 ng\u1eafn: b\u00e1n l\u1ebb online, F&B, SaaS subscription. Nh\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111i\u1ec3m: b\u1ecb seasonality \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng n\u1eb7ng \u2014 th\u00e1ng c\u00f3 T\u1ebft, c\u00f3 sale 6\/6, 11\/11 s\u1ebd t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean cao h\u01a1n th\u00e1ng th\u01b0\u1eddng.<\/p>\n

3.2. QoQ \u2014 Quarter over Quarter<\/h3>\n

So qu\u00fd n\u00e0y v\u1edbi qu\u00fd tr\u01b0\u1edbc. H\u1ee3p v\u1edbi business c\u00f3 cycle d\u00e0i h\u01a1n: B2B, d\u1ef1 \u00e1n, agency. L\u00e0m ph\u1eb3ng nhi\u1ec5u c\u1ee7a t\u1eebng th\u00e1ng nh\u01b0ng v\u1eabn nhanh \u0111\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ec3 ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng. C\u0169ng d\u00f9ng nhi\u1ec1u khi b\u00e1o c\u00e1o cho nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 v\u00f2ng seed\/Series A.<\/p>\n

3.3. YoY \u2014 Year over Year<\/h3>\n

So c\u00f9ng k\u1ef3 n\u0103m tr\u01b0\u1edbc (th\u00e1ng 6\/2026 vs th\u00e1ng 6\/2025, ho\u1eb7c Q2\/2026 vs Q2\/2025). \u0110\u00e2y l\u00e0 ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 ch\u1ed1ng seasonality t\u1ed1t nh\u1ea5t<\/strong> v\u00ec so s\u00e1nh hai k\u1ef3 c\u00f9ng \u0111\u1eb7c \u0111i\u1ec3m. N\u1ebfu ch\u1ec9 ch\u1ecdn m\u1ed9t con s\u1ed1 duy nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ec3 theo d\u00f5i s\u1ee9c kh\u1ecfe business, YoY th\u01b0\u1eddng l\u00e0 l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn an to\u00e0n nh\u1ea5t.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1<\/th>\nSo s\u00e1nh<\/th>\nPh\u00f9 h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi<\/th>\n\u0110i\u1ec3m y\u1ebfu<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
MoM<\/strong><\/td>\nTh\u00e1ng n\u00e0y vs th\u00e1ng tr\u01b0\u1edbc<\/td>\nShop online, F&B, SaaS<\/td>\nB\u1ecb m\u00f9a v\u1ee5 chi ph\u1ed1i<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
QoQ<\/strong><\/td>\nQu\u00fd n\u00e0y vs qu\u00fd tr\u01b0\u1edbc<\/td>\nB2B, agency, d\u1ef1 \u00e1n<\/td>\nV\u1eabn d\u00ednh m\u1ed9t ph\u1ea7n seasonality<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
YoY<\/strong><\/td>\nK\u1ef3 n\u00e0y vs c\u00f9ng k\u1ef3 n\u0103m tr\u01b0\u1edbc<\/td>\nM\u1ecdi lo\u1ea1i h\u00ecnh, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t b\u00e1o c\u00e1o nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0<\/td>\nCh\u1eadm ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng, c\u1ea7n \u00edt nh\u1ea5t 13 th\u00e1ng d\u1eef li\u1ec7u<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
CAGR<\/strong><\/td>\nTrung b\u00ecnh k\u00e9p nhi\u1ec1u n\u0103m<\/td>\n\u0110\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n 3-5 n\u0103m<\/td>\nChe gi\u1ea5u bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u1eebng n\u0103m<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

4. V\u00ed D\u1ee5 Th\u1ef1c T\u1ebf: T\u00ednh MoM Cho Shop Shopee Trong 6 Th\u00e1ng<\/h2>\n

4.1. S\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u th\u1eadt t\u1eeb m\u1ed9t shop m\u1ef9 ph\u1ea9m<\/h3>\n

Gi\u1ea3 s\u1eed shop Linh’s Beauty b\u00e1n d\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u1ef9 ph\u1ea9m tr\u00ean Shopee, doanh thu 6 th\u00e1ng \u0111\u1ea7u 2026 nh\u01b0 sau:<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Th\u00e1ng<\/th>\nDoanh thu (tri\u1ec7u VND)<\/th>\nPh\u00e9p t\u00ednh<\/th>\nMoM %<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Th\u00e1ng 1<\/td>\n65<\/td>\n\u2014<\/td>\n\u2014<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Th\u00e1ng 2<\/td>\n48<\/td>\n(48-65)\/65<\/td>\n-26.2%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Th\u00e1ng 3<\/td>\n72<\/td>\n(72-48)\/48<\/td>\n+50.0%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Th\u00e1ng 4<\/td>\n85<\/td>\n(85-72)\/72<\/td>\n+18.1%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Th\u00e1ng 5<\/td>\n98<\/td>\n(98-85)\/85<\/td>\n+15.3%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Th\u00e1ng 6<\/td>\n142<\/td>\n(142-98)\/98<\/td>\n+44.9%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

4.2. \u0110\u1ecdc b\u1ea3ng n\u00e0y nh\u01b0 th\u1ebf n\u00e0o<\/h3>\n

Nh\u00ecn v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 2 th\u1ea5y gi\u1ea3m 26.2% \u2014 ho\u1ea3ng kh\u00f4ng? Kh\u00f4ng, v\u00ec th\u00e1ng 1 l\u00e0 T\u1ebft, ng\u01b0\u1eddi ta mua nhi\u1ec1u m\u1ef9 ph\u1ea9m t\u1eb7ng v\u00e0 s\u1eeda so\u1ea1n, th\u00e1ng 2 ch\u00f9ng l\u1ea1i l\u00e0 b\u00ecnh th\u01b0\u1eddng. Th\u00e1ng 3 b\u1eadt l\u00ean 50% nh\u1edd chi\u1ebfn d\u1ecbch 8\/3. Th\u00e1ng 6 nh\u1ea3y 44.9% v\u00ec sale 6\/6 c\u1ee7a Shopee. \u0110\u00e2y l\u00e0 l\u00fd do MoM m\u1ed9t m\u00ecnh kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ee7, ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1eb7t trong context.<\/p>\n

4.3. T\u00ednh t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng t\u1ed5ng n\u1eeda n\u0103m<\/h3>\n

So th\u00e1ng 6 (142) v\u1edbi th\u00e1ng 1 (65): ((142-65)\/65) \u00d7 100 = +118.5%<\/strong>. Ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 shop \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng h\u01a1n g\u1ea5p \u0111\u00f4i trong 6 th\u00e1ng. \u0110\u00e2y l\u00e0 con s\u1ed1 b\u1ea1n d\u00f9ng \u0111\u1ec3 b\u00e1o c\u00e1o “t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng n\u1eeda \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m”, kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i c\u1ed9ng d\u1ed3n c\u00e1c MoM l\u1ea1i.<\/p>\n

\n\ud83d\udca1 L\u01b0u \u00fd quan tr\u1ecdng:<\/strong> Kh\u00f4ng bao gi\u1edd c\u1ed9ng d\u1ed3n % t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ec3 t\u00ednh t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng t\u1ed5ng. N\u1ebfu th\u00e1ng 2 t\u0103ng 10% v\u00e0 th\u00e1ng 3 t\u0103ng 10%, t\u1ed5ng KH\u00d4NG ph\u1ea3i 20% m\u00e0 l\u00e0 21% (v\u00ec 1.10 \u00d7 1.10 = 1.21). C\u1ed9ng % ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0 ph\u00e9p t\u00ednh cho d\u00e2n kh\u00f4ng h\u1ecdc to\u00e1n.\n<\/div>\n

5. T\u00ednh QoQ V\u00e0 YoY: Khi B\u00e1o C\u00e1o Cho Nh\u00e0 \u0110\u1ea7u T\u01b0<\/h2>\n

5.1. V\u00ed d\u1ee5 QoQ cho c\u1eeda h\u00e0ng F&B<\/h3>\n

Chu\u1ed7i 3 qu\u00e1n tr\u00e0 s\u1eefa M\u1ed9c Tr\u00e0 \u1edf H\u00e0 N\u1ed9i c\u00f3 doanh thu c\u00e1c qu\u00fd 2025:<\/p>\n