L\u00e3i k\u00e9p, hay l\u1ee3i t\u1ee9c k\u00e9p, l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t kh\u00e1i ni\u1ec7m t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd m\u00e0 Albert Einstein t\u1eebng g\u1ecdi l\u00e0 “k\u1ef3 quan th\u1ee9 t\u00e1m c\u1ee7a th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi”. Trong \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n, n\u00f3 kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0 l\u00e3i tr\u00ean v\u1ed1n g\u1ed1c m\u00e0 c\u00f2n l\u00e0 l\u00e3i tr\u00ean c\u1ea3 s\u1ed1 l\u00e3i \u0111\u00e3 t\u00edch l\u0169y tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00f3. Hi\u1ec3u v\u00e0 \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng \u0111\u00fang nguy\u00ean t\u1eafc n\u00e0y c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 bi\u1ebfn nh\u1eefng kho\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 nh\u1ecf ban \u0111\u1ea7u th\u00e0nh m\u1ed9t kh\u1ed1i t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 theo th\u1eddi gian.<\/p>\n\n
M\u1eb7c d\u00f9 c\u00f9ng d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean nguy\u00ean l\u00fd “l\u00e3i m\u1eb9 \u0111\u1ebb l\u00e3i con”, l\u00e3i k\u00e9p trong ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n v\u00e0 g\u1eedi ti\u1ebft ki\u1ec7m ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng c\u00f3 nh\u1eefng \u0111i\u1ec3m kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n:<\/p>\n
B\u1ea3n ch\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a l\u00e3i k\u00e9p trong ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh ch\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ed9ng, \u0111\u00f2i h\u1ecfi nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 ph\u1ea3i l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn v\u00e0 t\u00e1i \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch th\u00f4ng minh, thay v\u00ec th\u1ee5 \u0111\u1ed9ng nh\u1eadn l\u00e3i nh\u01b0 g\u1eedi ti\u1ebft ki\u1ec7m.<\/p>\n\n
Hi\u1ec7u \u1ee9ng l\u00e3i k\u00e9p trong ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c k\u00edch ho\u1ea1t th\u00f4ng qua hai c\u01a1 ch\u1ebf ch\u00ednh:<\/p>\n
\u0110\u00e2y l\u00e0 c\u00e1ch ph\u1ed5 bi\u1ebfn nh\u1ea5t. Thay v\u00ec r\u00fat c\u1ed5 t\u1ee9c b\u1eb1ng ti\u1ec1n m\u1eb7t, nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng s\u1ed1 ti\u1ec1n \u0111\u00f3 \u0111\u1ec3 mua th\u00eam c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu c\u1ee7a c\u00f9ng c\u00f4ng ty. S\u1ed1 c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu t\u0103ng l\u00ean n\u00e0y s\u1ebd ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c sinh ra c\u1ed5 t\u1ee9c trong k\u1ef3 ti\u1ebfp theo, v\u00e0 qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh n\u00e0y l\u1eb7p l\u1ea1i. C\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ec3 t\u00ednh gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai v\u1edbi t\u00e1i \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u1ed5 t\u1ee9c c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u00f4 ph\u1ecfng:<\/p>\n
Gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai = S\u1ed1 c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu ban \u0111\u1ea7u * (1 + T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ed5 t\u1ee9c h\u00e0ng n\u0103m)^S\u1ed1 n\u0103m<\/strong><\/p>\n Khi c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu t\u0103ng gi\u00e1, nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 b\u00e1n m\u1ed9t ph\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ec3 ch\u1ed1t l\u1eddi v\u00e0 s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng to\u00e0n b\u1ed9 s\u1ed1 ti\u1ec1n (v\u1ed1n g\u1ed1c + l\u00e3i) \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 v\u00e0o m\u1ed9t c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i m\u1edbi v\u1edbi k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c sinh l\u1eddi. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y \u0111\u00f2i h\u1ecfi k\u1ef9 n\u0103ng \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 v\u00e0 th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u1ed1t h\u01a1n.<\/p>\n Quy tr\u00ecnh t\u1ea1o l\u00e3i k\u00e9p hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 th\u01b0\u1eddng bao g\u1ed3m: 1) L\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu ch\u1ea5t l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u00f3 ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n ho\u1eb7c tr\u1ea3 c\u1ed5 t\u1ee9c \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh. 2) Ki\u00ean tr\u00ec n\u1eafm gi\u1eef v\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng r\u00fat l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn s\u1edbm. 3) T\u00e1i \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 to\u00e0n b\u1ed9 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn ho\u1eb7c c\u1ed5 t\u1ee9c thu \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c.<\/p>\n\n Gi\u1ea3 s\u1eed b\u1ea1n \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 100 tri\u1ec7u VND v\u00e0o m\u1ed9t qu\u1ef9 ETF m\u00f4 ph\u1ecfng VN-Index v\u1edbi k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn trung b\u00ecnh 10%\/n\u0103m (\u0111\u00e3 bao g\u1ed3m c\u1ea3 c\u1ed5 t\u1ee9c t\u00e1i \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0).<\/p>\n B\u1ea3ng tr\u00ean cho th\u1ea5y, sau 20 n\u0103m, s\u1ed1 ti\u1ec1n 100 tri\u1ec7u ban \u0111\u1ea7u \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng l\u00ean h\u01a1n 672 tri\u1ec7u m\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng c\u1ea7n th\u00eam b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 kho\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 n\u00e0o kh\u00e1c. \u0110i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00e1ng ch\u00fa \u00fd l\u00e0 trong nh\u1eefng n\u0103m cu\u1ed1i, s\u1ed1 ti\u1ec1n l\u00e3i sinh ra h\u00e0ng n\u0103m (61.16 tri\u1ec7u) \u0111\u00e3 l\u1edbn h\u01a1n c\u1ea3 v\u1ed1n g\u1ed1c ban \u0111\u1ea7u, th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n r\u00f5 s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh c\u1ee7a l\u00e3i k\u00e9p. Tuy nhi\u00ean, \u0111\u00e2y ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0 v\u00ed d\u1ee5 l\u00fd t\u01b0\u1edfng v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ecbnh, th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng lu\u00f4n bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng.<\/p>\n\n M\u1eb7c d\u00f9 ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng l\u1edbn, vi\u1ec7c theo \u0111u\u1ed5i l\u00e3i k\u00e9p trong ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 r\u1ee7i ro:<\/p>\n Do \u0111\u00f3, chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u00e1i \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 \u0111\u1ec3 t\u1ea1o l\u00e3i k\u00e9p ph\u1ea3i \u0111i k\u00e8m v\u1edbi vi\u1ec7c \u0111a d\u1ea1ng h\u00f3a danh m\u1ee5c, l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn c\u00f4ng ty c\u00f3 n\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng v\u1eefng ch\u1eafc v\u00e0 m\u1ed9t t\u1ea7m nh\u00ecn \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n, ki\u00ean nh\u1eabn.<\/p>\n\n \u0110\u1ec3 l\u1eadp k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch v\u00e0 h\u00ecnh dung r\u00f5 h\u01a1n v\u1ec1 m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh, nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng c\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c l\u00e3i k\u00e9p c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n:<\/p>\n A = P * (1 + r\/n)^(n*t)<\/strong><\/p>\n V\u00ed d\u1ee5: B\u1ea1n \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 200 tri\u1ec7u (P) v\u1edbi k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn 12%\/n\u0103m (r=0.12) trong 15 n\u0103m (t=15), l\u00e3i nh\u1eadp g\u1ed1c h\u00e0ng n\u0103m (n=1).<\/p>\n A = 200,000,000 * (1 + 0.12\/1)^(1*15) = 200,000,000 * (1.12)^15 \u2248 200,000,000 * 5.4736 \u2248 1,094,720,000 VND.<\/p>\n Ngo\u00e0i c\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c th\u1ee7 c\u00f4ng, b\u1ea1n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 d\u1ec5 d\u00e0ng t\u00ecm th\u1ea5y c\u00e1c m\u00e1y t\u00ednh l\u00e3i k\u00e9p tr\u1ef1c tuy\u1ebfn. Ch\u1ec9 c\u1ea7n nh\u1eadp c\u00e1c th\u00f4ng s\u1ed1 c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n, c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 s\u1ebd t\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u00ednh to\u00e1n v\u00e0 cho b\u1ea1n bi\u1ebft m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 thi hay kh\u00f4ng, ho\u1eb7c b\u1ea1n c\u1ea7n \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh s\u1ed1 v\u1ed1n ban \u0111\u1ea7u, th\u1eddi gian hay k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn ra sao.<\/p>\n Tr\u00ean l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft, l\u00e3i k\u00e9p l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t kh\u00e1i ni\u1ec7m \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n, nh\u01b0ng vi\u1ec7c \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng n\u00f3 v\u00e0o th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ea1i \u0111\u00f2i h\u1ecfi s\u1ef1 linh ho\u1ea1t. D\u01b0\u1edbi \u0111\u00e2y l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 t\u00ecnh hu\u1ed1ng th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf m\u00e0 nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u1ed1i \u01b0u h\u00f3a hi\u1ec7u \u1ee9ng n\u00e0y.<\/p> Nhi\u1ec1u ng\u01b0\u1eddi ngh\u0129 l\u00e3i k\u00e9p ch\u1ec9 hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 v\u1edbi c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh. Tuy nhi\u00ean, ngay c\u1ea3 v\u1edbi c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng, b\u1ea1n v\u1eabn c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u1eadn d\u1ee5ng. Chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u00e0 t\u00e1i \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u00f3 ch\u1ecdn l\u1ecdc<\/strong>. Thay v\u00ec t\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u00e1i \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 to\u00e0n b\u1ed9 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn sau m\u1ed7i chu k\u1ef3, h\u00e3y ch\u1edd \u0111\u1ee3i nh\u1eefng \u0111\u1ee3t \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh gi\u00e1 s\u00e2u. Vi\u1ec7c b\u01a1m th\u00eam v\u1ed1n v\u00e0o th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng s\u1ee3 h\u00e3i s\u1ebd gi\u00fap b\u1ea1n mua \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c nhi\u1ec1u c\u1ed5 ph\u1ea7n h\u01a1n v\u1edbi c\u00f9ng m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 ti\u1ec1n, t\u1eeb \u0111\u00f3 khu\u1ebfch \u0111\u1ea1i l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn khi c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i.<\/p> L\u00e3i k\u00e9p v\u00e0 DCA l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t c\u1eb7p b\u00e0i tr\u00f9ng ho\u00e0n h\u1ea3o. B\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 m\u1ed9t kho\u1ea3n c\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ecbnh \u0111\u1ecbnh k\u1ef3, b\u1ea1n t\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ed9ng mua nhi\u1ec1u c\u1ed5 ph\u1ea7n h\u01a1n khi gi\u00e1 th\u1ea5p v\u00e0 \u00edt h\u01a1n khi gi\u00e1 cao. L\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn t\u1eeb danh m\u1ee5c n\u00e0y sau \u0111\u00f3 l\u1ea1i \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u00e1i \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 theo nguy\u00ean t\u1eafc DCA, t\u1ea1o ra m\u1ed9t v\u00f2ng tu\u1ea7n ho\u00e0n “k\u00e9p”: k\u00e9p t\u1eeb vi\u1ec7c mua \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c nhi\u1ec1u c\u1ed5 ph\u1ea7n v\u00e0 k\u00e9p t\u1eeb vi\u1ec7c l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn sinh ra l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y gi\u1ea3m thi\u1ec3u r\u1ee7i ro th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u00e0 ki\u00ean \u0111\u1ecbnh \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh l\u00e3i k\u00e9p.<\/p> T\u1ea7n su\u1ea5t b\u1ea1n t\u00e1i \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn t\u1ea1o ra s\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t l\u1edbn v\u1ec1 k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng. Gi\u1ea3 s\u1eed b\u1ea1n c\u00f3 kho\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 ban \u0111\u1ea7u 100 tri\u1ec7u VN\u0110 v\u1edbi l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng 12%\/n\u0103m trong 20 n\u0103m.<\/p> B\u1ea3ng tr\u00ean minh h\u1ecda r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng: vi\u1ec7c t\u00e1i \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u00e0ng th\u01b0\u1eddng xuy\u00ean (trong \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n c\u00f9ng t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn\/n\u0103m) s\u1ebd mang l\u1ea1i k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng c\u00e0ng cao. Trong \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n, “t\u00e1i \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 li\u00ean t\u1ee5c” c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u00f4 ph\u1ecfng g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00fang th\u00f4ng qua vi\u1ec7c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c qu\u1ef9 ETF t\u00edch l\u0169y (accumulating ETF) ho\u1eb7c lu\u00f4n gi\u1eef nguy\u00ean t\u1ef7 tr\u1ecdng ti\u1ec1n m\u1eb7t t\u1eeb l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn \u0111\u1ec3 s\u1eb5n s\u00e0ng mua th\u00eam c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu.<\/p> Kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i c\u1ee9 t\u00e1i \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 l\u00e0 s\u1ebd th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng. D\u01b0\u1edbi \u0111\u00e2y l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng c\u1ea1m b\u1eaby khi\u1ebfn k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch l\u00e3i k\u00e9p c\u1ee7a b\u1ea1n th\u1ea5t b\u1ea1i.<\/p> \u0110\u00e2y l\u00e0 k\u1ebb th\u00f9 s\u1ed1 m\u1ed9t c\u1ee7a l\u00e3i k\u00e9p. Vi\u1ec7c xem l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn h\u00e0ng n\u0103m nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t kho\u1ea3n thu nh\u1eadp \u0111\u1ec3 ti\u00eau x\u00e0i s\u1ebd tri\u1ec7t ti\u00eau ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh c\u1ee7a vi\u1ec7c t\u00e1i t\u1ea1o t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n. H\u00e3y coi danh m\u1ee5c \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t “c\u1ed7 m\u00e1y t\u1ea1o l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn” v\u00e0 nhi\u00ean li\u1ec7u \u0111\u1ec3 c\u1ed7 m\u00e1y \u0111\u00f3 ch\u1ea1y m\u1ea1nh h\u01a1n ch\u00ednh l\u00e0 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn n\u00f3 t\u1ea1o ra. R\u00fat nhi\u00ean li\u1ec7u ra, c\u1ed7 m\u00e1y s\u1ebd m\u00e3i d\u1eadm ch\u00e2n t\u1ea1i ch\u1ed7.<\/p> L\u00e3i k\u00e9p c\u1ea7n th\u1eddi gian v\u00e0 m\u1ed9t t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng d\u01b0\u01a1ng \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh. \u00c1p d\u1ee5ng n\u00f3 v\u00e0o nh\u1eefng c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu “bong b\u00f3ng”, c\u00f4ng ty \u0111ang suy tho\u00e1i, ho\u1eb7c c\u00e1c s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh c\u00f3 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn b\u1ea5p b\u00eanh s\u1ebd v\u00f4 ngh\u0129a. B\u1ea1n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u00e1i \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0, nh\u01b0ng gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n l\u1ea1i gi\u1ea3m, d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn l\u00e3i k\u00e9p \u00e2m. Ch\u1ea5t l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u1ee7a t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n quan tr\u1ecdng h\u01a1n b\u1ea3n th\u00e2n c\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c l\u00e3i k\u00e9p.<\/em><\/p> N\u1ebfu b\u1ea1n ch\u1ec9 t\u1eadp trung t\u00e1i \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 v\u00e0o m\u1ed9t c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu ho\u1eb7c m\u1ed9t ng\u00e0nh duy nh\u1ea5t, r\u1ee7i ro s\u1ebd t\u00edch t\u1ee5. L\u00e3i k\u00e9p t\u1eeb m\u1ed9t t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n s\u1ee5p \u0111\u1ed5 s\u1ebd \u0111\u1ed5 s\u1eadp to\u00e0n b\u1ed9 k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch. C\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ecbnh k\u1ef3 t\u00e1i c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng danh m\u1ee5c, ch\u1ed1t l\u1eddi m\u1ed9t ph\u1ea7n \u1edf c\u00e1c v\u1ecb th\u1ebf t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng qu\u00e1 n\u00f3ng v\u00e0 t\u00e1i \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 v\u00e0o c\u00e1c khu v\u1ef1c c\u00f3 \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 h\u1ee3p l\u00fd h\u01a1n, \u0111\u1ea3m b\u1ea3o s\u1ef1 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng b\u1ec1n v\u1eefng cho to\u00e0n b\u1ed9 danh m\u1ee5c.<\/p> \u0110\u1ec3 \u01b0\u1edbc t\u00ednh nhanh th\u1eddi gian c\u1ea7n thi\u1ebft \u0111\u1ec3 s\u1ed1 v\u1ed1n t\u0103ng g\u1ea5p \u0111\u00f4i nh\u1edd l\u00e3i k\u00e9p, b\u1ea1n kh\u00f4ng c\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ebfn m\u00e1y t\u00ednh ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p. H\u00e3y s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng Quy t\u1eafc 72<\/strong>.<\/p> C\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c:<\/strong> S\u1ed1 n\u0103m \u0111\u1ec3 v\u1ed1n t\u0103ng g\u1ea5p \u0111\u00f4i \u2248 72 \/ T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn h\u00e0ng n\u0103m k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng (%).<\/p> Quy t\u1eafc n\u00e0y c\u0169ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 d\u00f9ng \u0111\u1ec3 \u01b0\u1edbc t\u00ednh t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn c\u1ea7n thi\u1ebft n\u1ebfu b\u1ea1n c\u00f3 m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau th\u1eddi gian c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3. V\u00ed d\u1ee5, mu\u1ed1n v\u1ed1n t\u0103ng g\u1ea5p \u0111\u00f4i trong 8 n\u0103m, b\u1ea1n c\u1ea7n t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn kho\u1ea3ng: 72 \/ 8 = 9%\/n\u0103m<\/strong>.<\/p> B\u1ea1n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 d\u1ec5 d\u00e0ng t\u1ef1 x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng m\u1ed9t m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh l\u00e3i k\u00e9p \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ec3 theo d\u00f5i danh m\u1ee5c c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh b\u1eb1ng Google Sheets. C\u00e1c b\u01b0\u1edbc c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n nh\u01b0 sau:<\/p> B\u1ea1n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch th\u00eam c\u1ed9t “S\u1ed1 ti\u1ec1n b\u1ed5 sung h\u00e0ng n\u0103m” \u0111\u1ec3 m\u00f4 ph\u1ecfng vi\u1ec7c ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c n\u1ea1p th\u00eam v\u1ed1n, t\u1ea1o n\u00ean hi\u1ec7u \u1ee9ng l\u00e3i k\u00e9p c\u1ef1c m\u1ea1nh t\u1eeb c\u1ea3 v\u1ed1n g\u1ed1c l\u1eabn d\u00f2ng ti\u1ec1n m\u1edbi.<\/p>\n \u0110\u1ec3 hi\u1ec3u s\u00e2u v\u00e0 t\u1ed1i \u01b0u hi\u1ec7u \u1ee9ng l\u00e3i k\u00e9p, nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u1ea7n ph\u00e2n t\u00edch ba y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i: t\u1ef7 su\u1ea5t sinh l\u1eddi k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng (l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t)<\/strong>, th\u1eddi gian \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0<\/strong>, v\u00e0 t\u1ea7n su\u1ea5t t\u00e1i \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0<\/strong>. Trong \u0111\u00f3, t\u1ea7n su\u1ea5t t\u00e1i \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 th\u01b0\u1eddng b\u1ecb b\u1ecf qua nh\u01b0ng l\u1ea1i c\u00f3 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t trong th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng.<\/p> B\u1ea3ng tr\u00ean minh h\u1ecda r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng: vi\u1ec7c r\u00fat ng\u1eafn chu k\u1ef3 t\u00e1i \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0<\/strong> (t\u1eeb n\u0103m xu\u1ed1ng qu\u00fd, ho\u1eb7c ngay khi c\u00f3 c\u1ed5 t\u1ee9c) gi\u00fap “v\u1ed1n sinh l\u1eddi” s\u1edbm h\u01a1n, t\u1eeb \u0111\u00f3 th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng cong t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng t\u1ed5ng t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n. \u0110\u00e2y l\u00e0 l\u00fd do c\u00e1c qu\u1ef9 ETF t\u00e1i \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u1ed5 t\u1ee9c t\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u01b0\u1eddng c\u00f3 l\u1ee3i th\u1ebf d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n.<\/p> \u00c1p d\u1ee5ng l\u00e3i k\u00e9p kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t kh\u00e1i ni\u1ec7m, m\u00e0 c\u1ea7n m\u1ed9t quy tr\u00ecnh b\u00e0i b\u1ea3n, c\u00f3 k\u1ef7 lu\u1eadt.<\/p> Kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu n\u00e0o c\u0169ng ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ec3 t\u1ea1o l\u00e3i k\u00e9p m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd. \u01afu ti\u00ean nh\u1eefng doanh nghi\u1ec7p c\u00f3 l\u1ee3i th\u1ebf c\u1ea1nh tranh b\u1ec1n v\u1eefng<\/em>, t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh<\/em> v\u00e0 c\u00f3 ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch chia s\u1ebb l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng (c\u1ed5 t\u1ee9c ho\u1eb7c t\u00e1i \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 \u0111\u1ec3 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng). C\u00e1c nh\u00f3m ng\u00e0nh nh\u01b0 c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7, ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng thi\u1ebft y\u1ebfu, t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh th\u01b0\u1eddng c\u00f3 ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng n\u00e0y.<\/p> T\u00e2m l\u00fd con ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u1ec5 b\u1ecb \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng b\u1edfi th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng. H\u00e3y thi\u1ebft l\u1eadp c\u01a1 ch\u1ebf t\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ed9ng: Hi\u1ec7u \u1ee9ng l\u00e3i k\u00e9p c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 khi\u1ebfn t\u1ef7 tr\u1ecdng m\u1ed9t c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 m\u1ee9c an to\u00e0n. C\u1ea7n t\u00e1i c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng danh m\u1ee5c 6 th\u00e1ng ho\u1eb7c 1 n\u0103m\/l\u1ea7n<\/strong> b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch ch\u1ed1t l\u1eddi m\u1ed9t ph\u1ea7n \u1edf c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu t\u0103ng m\u1ea1nh v\u00e0 ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 l\u1ea1i v\u00e0o c\u00e1c c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i m\u1edbi ho\u1eb7c c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu ch\u01b0a t\u0103ng. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y v\u1eeba qu\u1ea3n tr\u1ecb r\u1ee7i ro, v\u1eeba t\u1ea1o ngu\u1ed3n ti\u1ec1n \u0111\u1ec3 t\u00e1i \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 v\u00e0o c\u00e1c “h\u1ea1t gi\u1ed1ng” m\u1edbi.<\/p> \u0110\u1ea7u t\u01b0 v\u00e0o c\u00e1c qu\u1ef9 ETF ho\u1eb7c qu\u1ef9 ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 l\u00e0 minh ch\u1ee9ng r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng v\u00e0 \u00edt r\u1ee7i ro nh\u1ea5t cho l\u00e3i k\u00e9p. Gi\u1ea3 s\u1eed b\u1ea1n \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 v\u00e0o m\u1ed9t ETF m\u00f4 ph\u1ecfng VN30.<\/p> V\u00ed d\u1ee5 n\u00e0y nh\u1ea5n m\u1ea1nh: b\u1ea1n kh\u00f4ng c\u1ea7n ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 xu\u1ea5t s\u1eafc, ch\u1ec9 c\u1ea7n ki\u00ean tr\u00ec v\u1edbi m\u1ed9t c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 c\u00f3 tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ec3 l\u00e3i k\u00e9p l\u00e0m vi\u1ec7c<\/strong>.<\/p> L\u00e3i k\u00e9p kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00fac n\u00e0o c\u0169ng l\u00e0 \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng cong \u0111i l\u00ean m\u01b0\u1ee3t m\u00e0. Trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111i ngang (sideway) ho\u1eb7c suy tho\u00e1i, nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u1ea7n \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh:<\/p> Nh\u01b0 v\u1eady, l\u00e3i k\u00e9p trong \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 ph\u00e9p m\u00e0u, m\u00e0 l\u00e0 k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t quy tr\u00ecnh c\u00f3 ch\u1ee7 \u0111\u00edch, s\u1ef1 ki\u00ean nh\u1eabn v\u00e0 k\u1ef7 lu\u1eadt b\u1ec1n b\u1ec9<\/strong>. Vi\u1ec7c hi\u1ec3u s\u00e2u c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 c\u1ea5u th\u00e0nh, x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng m\u1ed9t quy tr\u00ecnh th\u1ef1c h\u00e0nh b\u00e0i b\u1ea3n v\u00e0 bi\u1ebft c\u00e1ch \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh linh ho\u1ea1t tr\u01b0\u1edbc c\u00e1c chu k\u1ef3 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u00ednh l\u00e0 ch\u00eca kh\u00f3a \u0111\u1ec3 khai th\u00e1c t\u1ed1i \u0111a s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh c\u1ee7a nguy\u00ean l\u00fd t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh v\u0129 \u0111\u1ea1i n\u00e0y.<\/p>\n Hi\u1ec7u \u1ee9ng l\u00e3i k\u00e9p kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t c\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc kh\u00f4 khan; n\u00f3 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c ch\u1ea1y marathon \u0111\u00f2i h\u1ecfi s\u1ef1 ki\u00ean nh\u1eabn v\u00e0 k\u1ef7 lu\u1eadt t\u00e2m l\u00fd v\u01b0\u1ee3t tr\u1ed9i. Th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng v\u1edbi l\u00e3i k\u00e9p trong ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n th\u01b0\u1eddng b\u1ecb ph\u00e1 v\u1ee1 b\u1edfi nh\u1eefng y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 c\u1ea3m x\u00fac nhi\u1ec1u h\u01a1n l\u00e0 c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt. D\u01b0\u1edbi \u0111\u00e2y l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng tr\u1edf ng\u1ea1i t\u00e2m l\u00fd ph\u1ed5 bi\u1ebfn v\u00e0 c\u00e1ch v\u01b0\u1ee3t qua ch\u00fang.<\/p> Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh hi\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ea1i, v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng th\u00f4ng tin c\u1eadp nh\u1eadt t\u1eebng gi\u00e2y v\u00e0 c\u00e1c c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c qu\u1ea3ng c\u00e1o "l\u00e0m gi\u00e0u nhanh", \u0111ang b\u00e0o m\u00f2n s\u1ef1 ki\u00ean nh\u1eabn c\u1ee7a nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0. Hi\u1ec7u \u1ee9ng l\u00e3i k\u00e9p c\u1ea7n th\u1eddi gian \u0111\u1ec3 ph\u00e1t huy s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 \u2013 th\u01b0\u1eddng l\u00e0 t\u1eeb 10 n\u0103m tr\u1edf l\u00ean. Trong khi \u0111\u00f3, nhi\u1ec1u ng\u01b0\u1eddi b\u1ecb cu\u1ed1n v\u00e0o vi\u1ec7c theo d\u00f5i danh m\u1ee5c h\u00e0ng ng\u00e0y, s\u1ed1t ru\u1ed9t tr\u01b0\u1edbc nh\u1eefng bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n v\u00e0 c\u00f3 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng b\u00e1n th\u00e1o c\u00e1c t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n t\u1ed1t ch\u1ec9 \u0111\u1ec3 ch\u1ed1t l\u1eddi nh\u1ecf ho\u1eb7c chuy\u1ec3n sang m\u1ed9t "c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i" m\u1edbi nghe c\u00f3 v\u1ebb h\u1ea5p d\u1eabn h\u01a1n. H\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 ng\u1eaft m\u1ea5t chu k\u1ef3 t\u00e1i \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0, l\u00e0m "g\u00e3y" ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh t\u00edch l\u0169y l\u00e3i k\u00e9p.<\/p> C\u00e1ch kh\u1eafc ph\u1ee5c:<\/strong> X\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng m\u1ed9t k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng v\u1edbi m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 (v\u00ed d\u1ee5: cho gi\u00e1o d\u1ee5c con c\u00e1i sau 15 n\u0103m, h\u01b0u tr\u00ed sau 25 n\u0103m). T\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ed9ng h\u00f3a quy tr\u00ecnh n\u1ed9p ti\u1ec1n v\u00e0 t\u00e1i \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0. H\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf xem x\u00e9t danh m\u1ee5c qu\u00e1 th\u01b0\u1eddng xuy\u00ean (v\u00ed d\u1ee5: m\u1ed7i qu\u00fd m\u1ed9t l\u1ea7n thay v\u00ec m\u1ed7i ng\u00e0y). T\u1eadp trung v\u00e0o s\u1ef1 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ee7a t\u1ed5ng t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n qua t\u1eebng n\u0103m thay v\u00ec l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn t\u1eebng th\u00e1ng.<\/p> Khi th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111i v\u00e0o giai \u0111o\u1ea1n suy tho\u00e1i ho\u1eb7c \u0111i ngang k\u00e9o d\u00e0i, gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb danh m\u1ee5c s\u1ee5t gi\u1ea3m c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 g\u00e2y ra t\u00e2m l\u00fd hoang mang, s\u1ee3 h\u00e3i. Thay v\u00ec nh\u00ecn nh\u1eadn \u0111\u00e2y l\u00e0 c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ec3 mua v\u00e0o nhi\u1ec1u h\u01a1n v\u1edbi gi\u00e1 t\u1ed1t (theo chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c DCA), nhi\u1ec1u nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 l\u1ea1i "\u0111\u00f3ng b\u0103ng", ng\u1eebng ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n vi\u1ec7c b\u1ed5 sung v\u1ed1n ho\u1eb7c th\u1eadm ch\u00ed r\u00fat lui. H\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng n\u00e0y v\u00f4 t\u00ecnh khi\u1ebfn h\u1ecd b\u1ecf l\u1ee1 giai \u0111o\u1ea1n t\u00edch l\u0169y s\u1ed1 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu\/c\u1ed5 ph\u1ea7n quan tr\u1ecdng nh\u1ea5t v\u1edbi gi\u00e1 th\u1ea5p, l\u00e0m gi\u1ea3m \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 l\u00e3i k\u00e9p trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai khi th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i.<\/p> C\u00e1ch kh\u1eafc ph\u1ee5c:<\/strong> Hi\u1ec3u r\u1eb1ng s\u1ef1 s\u1ee5t gi\u1ea3m theo chu k\u1ef3 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t ph\u1ea7n t\u1ea5t y\u1ebfu c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng. Chu\u1ea9n b\u1ecb t\u00e2m l\u00fd v\u00e0 t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh t\u1eeb tr\u01b0\u1edbc cho nh\u1eefng giai \u0111o\u1ea1n n\u00e0y. Tu\u00e2n th\u1ee7 nghi\u00eam ng\u1eb7t k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 \u0111\u1ecbnh k\u1ef3 \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1eb7t ra, coi vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 trong th\u1eddi k\u1ef3 kh\u00f3 kh\u0103n nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng "mua h\u00e0ng gi\u1ea3m gi\u00e1" cho t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai. Xem l\u1ea1i l\u1ecbch s\u1eed th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ec3 th\u1ea5y r\u1eb1ng m\u1ecdi \u0111\u1ee3t suy tho\u00e1i r\u1ed3i c\u0169ng qua \u0111i, v\u00e0 nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi ki\u00ean tr\u00ec lu\u00f4n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ec1n \u0111\u00e1p.<\/p> \u0110\u1ec3 l\u00e3i k\u00e9p ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 nh\u1ea5t, danh m\u1ee5c \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u1ea7n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c thi\u1ebft k\u1ebf nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t c\u1ed7 m\u00e1y v\u1eadn h\u00e0nh tr\u01a1n tru, \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh nh\u01b0ng v\u1eabn c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng. Vi\u1ec7c ch\u1ec9 t\u1eadp trung v\u00e0o m\u1ed9t v\u00e0i c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu ri\u00eang l\u1ebb c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u1ea1o ra l\u00e3i k\u00e9p m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd n\u1ebfu ch\u00fang th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng, nh\u01b0ng c\u0169ng ti\u1ec1m \u1ea9n r\u1ee7i cao l\u00e0m s\u1ee5p \u0111\u1ed5 to\u00e0n b\u1ed9 n\u1ed7 l\u1ef1c. M\u1ed9t c\u01a1 c\u1ea5u danh m\u1ee5c t\u1ed1i \u01b0u s\u1ebd gi\u00fap gi\u1ea3m thi\u1ec3u r\u1ee7i ro h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng v\u00e0 phi h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng, \u0111\u1ea3m b\u1ea3o d\u00f2ng ti\u1ec1n l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh \u0111\u1ec3 t\u00e1i \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0.<\/p> M\u1ed9t danh m\u1ee5c c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng gi\u1eefa hai nh\u00f3m n\u00e0y kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 gi\u00fap gi\u1ea3m thi\u1ec3u bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u1ed5ng th\u1ec3 m\u00e0 c\u00f2n t\u1ea1o ra nhi\u1ec1u ngu\u1ed3n l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn kh\u00e1c nhau (t\u1eeb gi\u00e1 v\u00e0 t\u1eeb c\u1ed5 t\u1ee9c) \u0111\u1ec3 c\u00f9ng tham gia v\u00e0o qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh t\u00e1i \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0, t\u1eeb \u0111\u00f3 gia t\u0103ng s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh t\u1ed5ng h\u1ee3p c\u1ee7a l\u00e3i k\u00e9p.<\/p> \u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi \u0111a s\u1ed1 nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u00e1 nh\u00e2n, vi\u1ec7c l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn v\u00e0 theo d\u00f5i m\u1ed9t r\u1ed5 c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu ri\u00eang l\u1ebb \u0111\u1ec3 t\u1ed1i \u01b0u l\u00e3i k\u00e9p l\u00e0 r\u1ea5t kh\u00f3 kh\u0103n. C\u00e1c qu\u1ef9 ETF theo ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 (nh\u01b0 VN30, VN100, S&P 500) cung c\u1ea5p m\u1ed9t gi\u1ea3i ph\u00e1p t\u1ed1i \u01b0u:<\/p> L\u00e3i k\u00e9p trong \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t "si\u00eau quy\u1ec1n l\u1ef1c" t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh c\u00f3 s\u1eb5n cho b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 ai c\u00f3 \u0111\u1ee7 ki\u1ebfn th\u1ee9c, k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 ki\u00ean \u0111\u1ecbnh. S\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh c\u1ee7a n\u00f3 kh\u00f4ng n\u1eb1m \u1edf nh\u1eefng ph\u00e9p t\u00ednh ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p, m\u00e0 n\u1eb1m \u1edf h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n, l\u1eb7p \u0111i l\u1eb7p l\u1ea1i: \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 \u0111\u1ec1u \u0111\u1eb7n v\u00e0o c\u00e1c t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n c\u00f3 ch\u1ea5t l\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u00e0 t\u00e1i \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 m\u1ecdi kho\u1ea3n l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn thu \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c.<\/strong> Con \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ebfn v\u1edbi th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng t\u1eeb l\u00e3i k\u00e9p \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u00e1t b\u1eb1ng s\u1ef1 k\u1ef7 lu\u1eadt \u0111\u1ec3 v\u01b0\u1ee3t qua nh\u1eefng c\u00e1m d\u1ed7 c\u1ee7a l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n, s\u1ef1 b\u00ecnh t\u0129nh \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u00f3n nh\u1eadn nh\u1eefng \u0111\u1ee3t s\u00f3ng c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng, v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 th\u00f4ng th\u00e1i \u0111\u1ec3 x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng m\u1ed9t danh m\u1ee5c b\u1ec1n v\u1eefng. H\u00e3y b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u s\u1edbm, ki\u00ean tr\u00ec tu\u00e2n th\u1ee7 chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c, v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ec3 th\u1eddi gian tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh ng\u01b0\u1eddi b\u1ea1n \u0111\u1ed3ng h\u00e0nh qu\u00fd gi\u00e1 nh\u1ea5t, bi\u1ebfn nh\u1eefng n\u1ed7 l\u1ef1c nh\u1ecf b\u00e9 h\u00f4m nay th\u00e0nh m\u1ed9t kh\u1ed1i t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai.<\/p> C\u00f3, nh\u01b0ng theo m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch kh\u00e1c. Trong th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111i ngang, l\u00e3i k\u00e9p t\u1eeb vi\u1ec7c t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 s\u1ebd r\u1ea5t h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf. Tuy nhi\u00ean, \u0111\u00e2y l\u00e0 th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m l\u00fd t\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7u \u1ee9ng l\u00e3i k\u00e9p t\u1eeb vi\u1ec7c t\u00e1i \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u1ed5 t\u1ee9c<\/strong> ph\u00e1t huy s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh. B\u1ea1n d\u00f9ng c\u1ed5 t\u1ee9c nh\u1eadn \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ec3 mua th\u00eam nhi\u1ec1u c\u1ed5 ph\u1ea7n h\u01a1n \u1edf m\u1ee9c gi\u00e1 kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ed5i ho\u1eb7c th\u1ea5p, l\u00e0m gia t\u0103ng \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 s\u1ed1 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u1ed5 ph\u1ea7n n\u1eafm gi\u1eef. Khi th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng b\u1ee9t ph\u00e1 tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i, kh\u1ed1i t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n l\u1edbn h\u01a1n n\u00e0y s\u1ebd t\u1ea1o ra m\u1ee9c l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn tuy\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed1i cao h\u01a1n nhi\u1ec1u.<\/p> N\u1ebfu c\u00f3 th\u1ec3, h\u00e3y \u01b0u ti\u00ean ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 t\u00e1i \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 t\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ed9ng (DRIP) do c\u00f4ng ty ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n ho\u1eb7c c\u00f4ng ty qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd qu\u1ef9 cung c\u1ea5p. DRIP gi\u00fap b\u1ea1n: V\u1edbi c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kh\u00f4ng tr\u1ea3 c\u1ed5 t\u1ee9c, l\u00e3i k\u00e9p \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u1ea1o ra ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n t\u1eeb vi\u1ec7c t\u0103ng gi\u00e1. \u0110\u1ec3 duy tr\u00ec l\u00e3i k\u00e9p, b\u1ea1n c\u1ea7n t\u00e1i \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 m\u1ed9t ph\u1ea7n l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn t\u1eeb ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch gi\u00e1<\/strong>. V\u00ed d\u1ee5, khi b\u00e1n m\u1ed9t ph\u1ea7n c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 \u0111\u1ec3 ch\u1ed1t l\u1eddi, h\u00e3y d\u00f9ng s\u1ed1 ti\u1ec1n l\u1eddi \u0111\u00f3 \u0111\u1ec3 mua b\u1ed5 sung th\u00eam ch\u00ednh c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu \u0111\u00f3 ho\u1eb7c c\u00e1c c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu kh\u00e1c trong danh m\u1ee5c. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y \u0111\u00f2i h\u1ecfi k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch v\u00e0 k\u1ef7 lu\u1eadt ch\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ed9ng h\u01a1n.<\/p> Th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m n\u00e0y ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh c\u00e1 nh\u00e2n. M\u1ed9t nguy\u00ean t\u1eafc chung l\u00e0 b\u1ea1n ch\u1ec9 n\u00ean ng\u1eebng t\u00e1i \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 v\u00e0 b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u r\u00fat ra khi \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ho\u1eb7c v\u01b0\u1ee3t qua m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n<\/strong> (v\u00ed d\u1ee5: s\u1ed1 ti\u1ec1n c\u1ea7n cho h\u01b0u tr\u00ed). Khi \u0111\u00f3, b\u1ea1n chuy\u1ec3n t\u1eeb giai \u0111o\u1ea1n "t\u00edch l\u0169y" sang giai \u0111o\u1ea1n "h\u01b0\u1edfng th\u1ee5". Vi\u1ec7c r\u00fat ti\u1ec1n qu\u00e1 s\u1edbm s\u1ebd l\u00e0m gi\u1ea3m nghi\u00eam tr\u1ecdng s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh c\u1ee7a l\u00e3i k\u00e9p trong nh\u1eefng n\u0103m v\u1ec1 sau.<\/p> C\u00f3. L\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t l\u00e0 "k\u1ebb th\u00f9 th\u1ea7m l\u1eb7ng" c\u1ee7a m\u1ecdi kho\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0. L\u00e3i k\u00e9p danh ngh\u0129a (theo s\u1ed1 ti\u1ec1n m\u1eb7t) c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 r\u1ea5t \u1ea5n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng, nh\u01b0ng l\u00e3i k\u00e9p th\u1ef1c (\u0111\u00e3 tr\u1eeb l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t) m\u1edbi ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh \u0111\u00fang s\u1ee9c mua t\u0103ng l\u00ean. \u0110\u1ec3 l\u00e3i k\u00e9p th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 c\u00f3 \u00fd ngh\u0129a, t\u1ef7 su\u1ea5t l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng c\u1ee7a danh m\u1ee5c ph\u1ea3i cao h\u01a1n t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t trung b\u00ecnh d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n<\/strong>. \u0110\u00e2y l\u00e0 l\u00fd do t\u1ea1i sao \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 v\u00e0o t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n c\u00f3 ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng nh\u01b0 c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu th\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u01b0a chu\u1ed9ng h\u01a1n g\u1eedi ti\u1ebft ki\u1ec7m \u0111\u1ec3 ch\u1ed1ng l\u1ea1i l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t v\u1ec1 l\u00e2u d\u00e0i.<\/p> Ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3. V\u1edbi l\u00e3i k\u00e9p, y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 th\u1eddi gian quan tr\u1ecdng h\u01a1n s\u1ed1 v\u1ed1n ban \u0111\u1ea7u<\/strong>. M\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 v\u1ed1n nh\u1ecf nh\u01b0ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c b\u1ed5 sung \u0111\u1ec1u \u0111\u1eb7n h\u00e0ng th\u00e1ng v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 trong th\u1eddi gian d\u00e0i (20-30 n\u0103m) ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n th\u00e0nh m\u1ed9t kho\u1ea3n ti\u1ec1n l\u1edbn nh\u1edd s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh c\u1ee7a l\u00e3i ch\u1ed3ng l\u00e3i. \u0110i\u1ec1u quan tr\u1ecdng l\u00e0 b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u ngay t\u1eeb b\u00e2y gi\u1edd v\u00e0 duy tr\u00ec \u0111\u1ec1u \u0111\u1eb7n.<\/p> B\u1ea1n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 th\u00f4ng qua:T\u00e1i \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn t\u1eeb ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch gi\u00e1<\/h3>\n
V\u00ed d\u1ee5 minh h\u1ecda v\u1edbi c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ec1u<\/h2>\n
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N\u0103m<\/th> Gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m (tri\u1ec7u VND)<\/th> L\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn 10% (tri\u1ec7u VND)<\/th> Gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb cu\u1ed1i n\u0103m (tri\u1ec7u VND)<\/th><\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n 1<\/td> 100<\/td> 10<\/td> 110<\/td><\/tr>\n 5<\/td> 146.41<\/td> 14.64<\/td> 161.05<\/td><\/tr>\n 10<\/td> 235.79<\/td> 23.58<\/td> 259.37<\/td><\/tr>\n 15<\/td> 379.75<\/td> 37.97<\/td> 417.72<\/td><\/tr>\n 20<\/td> 611.59<\/td> 61.16<\/td> 672.75<\/td><\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n R\u1ee7i ro c\u1ea7n l\u01b0u \u00fd khi k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng v\u00e0o l\u00e3i k\u00e9p trong \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0<\/h2>\n
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C\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 t\u00ednh l\u00e3i k\u00e9p \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng cho danh m\u1ee5c \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0<\/h2>\n
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Nh\u1eefng T\u00ecnh Hu\u1ed1ng \u00c1p D\u1ee5ng L\u00e3i K\u00e9p Trong Th\u1ef1c T\u1ebf<\/h2>
Khi C\u1ed5 Phi\u1ebfu C\u00f3 Bi\u1ebfn \u0110\u1ed9ng M\u1ea1nh<\/h3>
K\u1ebft H\u1ee3p V\u1edbi Chi\u1ebfn L\u01b0\u1ee3c Trung B\u00ecnh Gi\u00e1 (DCA)<\/h3>
B\u1ea3ng So S\u00e1nh T\u00e1c \u0110\u1ed9ng C\u1ee7a T\u1ea7n Su\u1ea5t T\u00e1i \u0110\u1ea7u T\u01b0<\/h2>
T\u1ea7n Su\u1ea5t T\u00e1i \u0110\u1ea7u T\u01b0<\/th> C\u01a1 Ch\u1ebf Ho\u1ea1t \u0110\u1ed9ng<\/th> Gi\u00e1 Tr\u1ecb T\u01b0\u01a1ng Lai (Sau 20 n\u0103m)<\/th> Ghi Ch\u00fa<\/th><\/tr><\/thead> Kh\u00f4ng t\u00e1i \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0<\/strong><\/td> Ch\u1ec9 nh\u1eadn l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn r\u00f2ng h\u00e0ng n\u0103m, g\u1ed1c kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ed5i.<\/td> 340 tri\u1ec7u VN\u0110<\/td> L\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn \u0111\u01a1n thu\u1ea7n, hi\u1ec7u \u1ee9ng k\u00e9p b\u1eb1ng 0.<\/td><\/tr> T\u00e1i \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 h\u00e0ng n\u0103m<\/strong><\/td> L\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn n\u0103m tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ed9ng d\u1ed3n v\u00e0o v\u1ed1n g\u1ed1c n\u0103m sau.<\/td> 964 tri\u1ec7u VN\u0110<\/td> Ph\u1ed5 bi\u1ebfn nh\u1ea5t, d\u1ec5 theo d\u00f5i.<\/td><\/tr> T\u00e1i \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 h\u00e0ng qu\u00fd<\/strong><\/td> L\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn m\u1ed7i qu\u00fd \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u00ednh v\u00e0o v\u1ed1n cho qu\u00fd ti\u1ebfp theo.<\/td> 1,072 t\u1ef7 VN\u0110<\/td> Hi\u1ec7u \u1ee9ng b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u r\u00f5 r\u1ec7t, ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi c\u1ed5 t\u1ee9c qu\u00fd.<\/td><\/tr> T\u00e1i \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 li\u00ean t\u1ee5c (l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft)<\/strong><\/td> Gi\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u00ednh v\u00e0 t\u00e1i \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 t\u1eebng kho\u1ea3nh kh\u1eafc.<\/td> 1,102 t\u1ef7 VN\u0110<\/td> Cho th\u1ea5y gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb t\u1ed1i \u0111a l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft c\u1ee7a l\u00e3i k\u00e9p.<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table> Sai L\u1ea7m Ph\u1ed5 Bi\u1ebfn L\u00e0m “G\u00e3y” Hi\u1ec7u \u1ee8ng L\u00e3i K\u00e9p<\/h2>
R\u00fat L\u1ee3i Nhu\u1eadn Qu\u00e1 S\u1edbm \u0110\u1ec3 Chi Ti\u00eau<\/h3>
\u0110\u1ea7u T\u01b0 V\u00e0o T\u00e0i S\u1ea3n Kh\u00f4ng C\u00f3 Tri\u1ec3n V\u1ecdng T\u0103ng Tr\u01b0\u1edfng D\u00e0i H\u1ea1n<\/h3>
Kh\u00f4ng T\u00e1i C\u00e2n B\u1eb1ng Danh M\u1ee5c<\/h3>
M\u1eb9o T\u00ednh Nhanh Gi\u00e1 Tr\u1ecb T\u01b0\u01a1ng Lai V\u1edbi Quy T\u1eafc 72<\/h2>
L\u01b0u \u00fd: Quy t\u1eafc 72 cho k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00fang, ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c nh\u1ea5t v\u1edbi t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn trong kho\u1ea3ng 6% \u0111\u1ebfn 10%. N\u00f3 l\u00e0 c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 tuy\u1ec7t v\u1eddi \u0111\u1ec3 h\u00ecnh dung v\u00e0 l\u1eadp k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh nhanh ch\u00f3ng.<\/blockquote>
Ki\u1ec3m Tra K\u1ebft Qu\u1ea3 L\u00e3i K\u00e9p C\u1ee7a B\u1ea1n Tr\u00ean Google Sheets<\/h2>
=B2*C2<\/code>.<\/li>=B2+D2<\/code>. \u0110\u00e2y ch\u00ednh l\u00e0 v\u1ed1n \u0111\u00e3 c\u00f3 l\u00e3i k\u00e9p sau n\u0103m \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean.<\/li><\/ul><\/li>=E2<\/code>.<\/li>Ph\u00e2n T\u00edch Chi Ti\u1ebft C\u00e1c Y\u1ebfu T\u1ed1 \u1ea2nh H\u01b0\u1edfng \u0110\u1ebfn L\u00e3i K\u00e9p Trong Ch\u1ee9ng Kho\u00e1n<\/h2>
B\u1ea3ng Ph\u00e2n T\u00edch T\u00e1c \u0110\u1ed9ng C\u1ee7a T\u1ea7n Su\u1ea5t T\u00e1i \u0110\u1ea7u T\u01b0 \u0110\u1ebfn T\u1ed5ng L\u1ee3i Nhu\u1eadn<\/h3>
K\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n t\u00e1i \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0<\/th> T\u1ed5ng v\u1ed1n ban \u0111\u1ea7u<\/th> L\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn h\u00e0ng n\u0103m k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng<\/th> Th\u1eddi gian<\/th> Gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai (\u01b0\u1edbc t\u00ednh)<\/th> Ghi ch\u00fa<\/th><\/tr><\/thead> T\u00e1i \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn h\u00e0ng n\u0103m<\/td> 100 tri\u1ec7u VN\u0110<\/td> 15%<\/td> 10 n\u0103m<\/td> ~404.6 tri\u1ec7u VN\u0110<\/td> Ph\u1ed5 bi\u1ebfn, d\u1ec5 theo d\u00f5i.<\/td><\/tr> T\u00e1i \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn theo qu\u00fd<\/td> 100 tri\u1ec7u VN\u0110<\/td> 15% (g\u1ed9p theo qu\u00fd)<\/td> 10 n\u0103m<\/td> ~424.8 tri\u1ec7u VN\u0110<\/td> L\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ed9ng d\u1ed3n v\u00e0 t\u00e1i \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 nhanh h\u01a1n.<\/td><\/tr> T\u00e1i \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u1ed5 t\u1ee9c ngay khi nh\u1eadn<\/td> 100 tri\u1ec7u VN\u0110<\/td> 10% (t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng) + 5% (c\u1ed5 t\u1ee9c)<\/td> 10 n\u0103m<\/td> ~432.2 tri\u1ec7u VN\u0110<\/td> Gi\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u1ed5 t\u1ee9c \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u00e1i \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 ngay v\u1edbi gi\u00e1 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng.<\/td><\/tr> Kh\u00f4ng t\u00e1i \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 (ch\u1ec9 gi\u1eef l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn)<\/td> 100 tri\u1ec7u VN\u0110<\/td> 15%<\/td> 10 n\u0103m<\/td> 250 tri\u1ec7u VN\u0110<\/td> Kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 hi\u1ec7u \u1ee9ng l\u00e3i k\u00e9p.<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table> Quy Tr\u00ecnh Th\u1ef1c H\u00e0nh X\u00e2y D\u1ef1ng V\u00e0 Duy Tr\u00ec L\u00e3i K\u00e9p<\/h2>
B\u01b0\u1edbc 1: L\u1ef1a Ch\u1ecdn T\u00e0i S\u1ea3n N\u1ec1n T\u1ea3ng<\/h3>
B\u01b0\u1edbc 2: Thi\u1ebft L\u1eadp C\u01a1 Ch\u1ebf T\u00e1i \u0110\u1ea7u T\u01b0 T\u1ef1 \u0110\u1ed9ng<\/h3>
B\u01b0\u1edbc 3: Theo D\u00f5i V\u00e0 T\u00e1i C\u00e2n B\u1eb1ng \u0110\u1ecbnh K\u1ef3<\/h3>
V\u00ed D\u1ee5 N\u00e2ng Cao: L\u00e3i K\u00e9p Trong \u0110\u1ea7u T\u01b0 Theo Ch\u1ec9 S\u1ed1 (Index Investing)<\/h2>
K\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n:<\/strong> B\u1ea1n \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 200 tri\u1ec7u \u0111\u1ed3ng v\u00e0o ETF VN30. Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 n\u00e0y mang l\u1ea1i l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn k\u00e9p h\u00e0ng n\u0103m (t\u1eeb t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 v\u00e0 c\u1ed5 t\u1ee9c t\u00e1i \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0) trung b\u00ecnh 12%. Sau 20 n\u0103m, v\u1edbi vi\u1ec7c kh\u00f4ng b\u1ed5 sung th\u00eam v\u1ed1n<\/em>, danh m\u1ee5c c\u1ee7a b\u1ea1n s\u1ebd c\u00f3 gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb: 200 * (1.12)^20 = ~1,930 tri\u1ec7u \u0111\u1ed3ng<\/strong>. Con s\u1ed1 n\u00e0y \u0111\u1ebfn ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu t\u1eeb s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh c\u1ee7a th\u1eddi gian v\u00e0 c\u01a1 ch\u1ebf t\u00e1i \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 t\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a qu\u1ef9.<\/blockquote>
\u0110i\u1ec1u Ch\u1ec9nh Chi\u1ebfn L\u01b0\u1ee3c Khi G\u1eb7p Th\u1ecb Tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0110i Ngang Ho\u1eb7c Suy Tho\u00e1i<\/h2>
B\u1ea3ng H\u01b0\u1edbng D\u1eabn H\u00e0nh \u0110\u1ed9ng Theo T\u1eebng Giai \u0110o\u1ea1n Th\u1ecb Tr\u01b0\u1eddng<\/h3>
Giai \u0111o\u1ea1n th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng<\/th> T\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ebfn l\u00e3i k\u00e9p<\/th> H\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u1ed1i \u01b0u cho l\u00e3i k\u00e9p<\/th><\/tr><\/thead> T\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng m\u1ea1nh (Bull Market)<\/td> Hi\u1ec7u \u1ee9ng r\u00f5 r\u1ec7t, gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb danh m\u1ee5c t\u0103ng nhanh.<\/td> Ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c t\u00e1i \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0; xem x\u00e9t ch\u1ed1t l\u1eddi m\u1ed9t ph\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ec3 t\u00e1i c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng v\u00e0 b\u1ea3o v\u1ec7 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn.<\/td><\/tr> \u0110i ngang (Sideway Market)<\/td> T\u1ea1m d\u1eebng, ch\u1edd \u0111\u1ee3i xu h\u01b0\u1edbng m\u1edbi.<\/td> T\u1eadp trung thu c\u1ed5 t\u1ee9c v\u00e0 t\u00e1i \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0; c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u1eadn d\u1ee5ng bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng nh\u1ecf \u0111\u1ec3 gia t\u0103ng s\u1ed1 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu.<\/td><\/tr> Suy tho\u00e1i (Bear Market)<\/td> Gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb danh m\u1ee5c suy gi\u1ea3m, th\u1eed th\u00e1ch t\u00e2m l\u00fd.<\/td> Kh\u00f4ng ng\u1eebng t\u00e1i \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0<\/strong> c\u1ed5 t\u1ee9c\/l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn. N\u1ebfu c\u00f3 th\u1ec3, b\u1ed5 sung v\u1ed1n \u0111\u1ec3 mua \u1edf gi\u00e1 t\u1ed1t, t\u1ea1o \u0111\u00e0 b\u1eadt m\u1ea1nh khi h\u1ed3i ph\u1ee5c.<\/td><\/tr> Ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i (Recovery)<\/td> Giai \u0111o\u1ea1n l\u00e3i k\u00e9p ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 nh\u1ea5t sau m\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ee3t gi\u1ea3m.<\/td> Duy tr\u00ec k\u1ef7 lu\u1eadt, \u0111\u1ec3 c\u00e1c v\u1ecb th\u1ebf gi\u00e1 th\u1ea5p \u0111\u00e3 mua tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00f3 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng.<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table> Ph\u00e2n T\u00edch T\u00e2m L\u00fd Nh\u00e0 \u0110\u1ea7u T\u01b0 Trong H\u00e0nh Tr\u00ecnh L\u00e3i K\u00e9p<\/h2>
S\u1ef1 Thi\u1ebfu Ki\u00ean Nh\u1eabn V\u00e0 "C\u01a1n Kh\u00e1t" L\u1ee3i Nhu\u1eadn Nhanh<\/h3>
N\u1ed7i S\u1ee3 Thua L\u1ed7 V\u00e0 Hi\u1ec7u \u1ee8ng "\u0110\u00f3ng B\u0103ng"<\/h3>
T\u1ed1i \u01afu H\u00f3a C\u01a1 C\u1ea5u Danh M\u1ee5c \u0110\u1ec3 T\u0103ng C\u01b0\u1eddng L\u00e3i K\u00e9p<\/h2>
K\u1ebft H\u1ee3p Gi\u1eefa T\u00e0i S\u1ea3n T\u0103ng Tr\u01b0\u1edfng V\u00e0 T\u00e0i S\u1ea3n Sinh L\u1ee3i<\/h3>
Vai Tr\u00f2 C\u1ee7a C\u00e1c Qu\u1ef9 Ch\u1ec9 S\u1ed1 (ETF) Trong Vi\u1ec7c Duy Tr\u00ec L\u00e3i K\u00e9p<\/h3>
K\u1ebft lu\u1eadn<\/h2>
C\u00e2u h\u1ecfi th\u01b0\u1eddng g\u1eb7p (FAQ)<\/h2>
L\u00e3i k\u00e9p c\u00f3 ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 trong th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111i ngang (sideway) kh\u00f4ng?<\/h3>
T\u00f4i n\u00ean t\u00e1i \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u1ed5 t\u1ee9c th\u1ee7 c\u00f4ng hay thi\u1ebft l\u1eadp ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 t\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ed9ng (DRIP)?<\/h3>
1. T\u00e1i \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 ngay l\u1eadp t\u1ee9c to\u00e0n b\u1ed9 c\u1ed5 t\u1ee9c, kh\u00f4ng b\u1ecf s\u00f3t th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m.
2. Th\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c mua c\u1ed5 ph\u1ea7n l\u1ebb m\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng m\u1ea5t ph\u00ed giao d\u1ecbch, t\u1ed1i \u01b0u h\u00f3a t\u1eebng \u0111\u1ed3ng c\u1ed5 t\u1ee9c.
3. Lo\u1ea1i b\u1ecf ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 c\u1ea3m x\u00fac v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 tr\u00ec ho\u00e3n. N\u1ebfu kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 DRIP, b\u1ea1n c\u1ea7n c\u00f3 k\u1ef7 lu\u1eadt cao \u0111\u1ec3 th\u1ee7 c\u00f4ng t\u00e1i \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u1ed5 t\u1ee9c ngay khi nh\u1eadn \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c.<\/p>L\u00e0m th\u1ebf n\u00e0o \u0111\u1ec3 x\u1eed l\u00fd c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu kh\u00f4ng tr\u1ea3 c\u1ed5 t\u1ee9c trong chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u00e3i k\u00e9p?<\/h3>
Khi n\u00e0o th\u00ec n\u00ean ng\u1eebng t\u00e1i \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 v\u00e0 b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u r\u00fat l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn \u0111\u1ec3 s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng?<\/h3>
L\u00e3i k\u00e9p c\u00f3 b\u1ecb \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng b\u1edfi l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t kh\u00f4ng?<\/h3>
T\u00f4i c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng l\u00e3i k\u00e9p v\u1edbi s\u1ed1 v\u1ed1n nh\u1ecf ban \u0111\u1ea7u kh\u00f4ng?<\/h3>
L\u00e0m sao \u0111\u1ec3 bi\u1ebft danh m\u1ee5c c\u1ee7a t\u00f4i \u0111ang t\u1ea1o ra l\u00e3i k\u00e9p hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3?<\/h3>
1. T\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng t\u1ed5ng t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n h\u00e0ng n\u0103m (CAGR):<\/strong> T\u00ednh t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng k\u00e9p h\u00e0ng n\u0103m c\u1ee7a to\u00e0n b\u1ed9 danh m\u1ee5c. N\u00f3 ph\u1ea3i \u1edf m\u1ee9c d\u01b0\u01a1ng v\u00e0 \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh qua c\u00e1c n\u0103m.
2. S\u1ed1 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u1ed5 ph\u1ea7n\/c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu n\u1eafm gi\u1eef:<\/strong> Theo th\u1eddi gian, con s\u1ed1 n\u00e0y c\u00f3 t\u0103ng l\u00ean \u0111\u1ec1u \u0111\u1eb7n nh\u1edd t\u00e1i \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u1ed5 t\u1ee9c v\u00e0 b\u1ed5 sung v\u1ed1n kh\u00f4ng?
3. Thu nh\u1eadp t\u1eeb c\u1ed5 t\u1ee9c:<\/strong> S\u1ed1 ti\u1ec1n c\u1ed5 t\u1ee9c b\u1ea1n nh\u1eadn \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u1ed7i n\u0103m c\u00f3 t\u0103ng l\u00ean so v\u1edbi n\u0103m tr\u01b0\u1edbc kh\u00f4ng? N\u1ebfu c\u00f3, ch\u1ee9ng t\u1ecf b\u1ea1n \u0111ang s\u1edf h\u1eefu nhi\u1ec1u c\u1ed5 ph\u1ea7n h\u01a1n \u2013 m\u1ed9t d\u1ea5u hi\u1ec7u c\u1ee7a l\u00e3i k\u00e9p \u0111ang ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng.<\/p>\n\n