{"id":1872,"date":"2026-09-19T02:19:54","date_gmt":"2026-09-19T02:19:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/1phantram.com\/blog\/quy-tac-72-la-gi\/"},"modified":"2026-09-19T02:19:54","modified_gmt":"2026-09-19T02:19:54","slug":"quy-tac-72-la-gi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/1phantram.com\/blog\/quy-tac-72-la-gi\/","title":{"rendered":"Quy t\u1eafc 72 l\u00e0 g\u00ec? \u01af\u1edbc t\u00ednh th\u1eddi gian ti\u1ec1n g\u1ea5p \u0111\u00f4i nh\u1edd l\u00e3i k\u00e9p"},"content":{"rendered":"

Trong th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh c\u00e1 nh\u00e2n v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0, c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t c\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ebfn b\u1ea5t ng\u1edd nh\u01b0ng l\u1ea1i v\u00f4 c\u00f9ng m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd, gi\u00fap b\u1ea1n h\u00ecnh dung r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng v\u1ec1 s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh c\u1ee7a l\u00e3i k\u00e9p: Quy t\u1eafc 72<\/strong>. \u0110\u00e2y kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 ph\u00e9p m\u00e0u, m\u00e0 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 \u01b0\u1edbc t\u00ednh nhanh, cho ph\u00e9p b\u1ea1n t\u00ednh nh\u1ea9m th\u1eddi gian c\u1ea7n thi\u1ebft \u0111\u1ec3 s\u1ed1 ti\u1ec1n c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh t\u0103ng g\u1ea5p \u0111\u00f4i ch\u1ec9 d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean m\u1ee9c l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t k\u00e9p h\u00e0ng n\u0103m. Hi\u1ec3u v\u00e0 \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng quy t\u1eafc n\u00e0y l\u00e0 b\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean \u0111\u1ec3 b\u1ea1n l\u00e0m ch\u1ee7 k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh.<\/p>

Quy t\u1eafc 72 l\u00e0 g\u00ec?<\/h2>

Quy t\u1eafc 72 (Rule of 72)<\/strong> l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t ph\u00e9p t\u00ednh g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00fang trong t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh, \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng \u0111\u1ec3 \u01b0\u1edbc t\u00ednh s\u1ed1 n\u0103m c\u1ea7n thi\u1ebft \u0111\u1ec3 m\u1ed9t kho\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 t\u0103ng g\u1ea5p \u0111\u00f4i gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb khi \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t k\u00e9p v\u1edbi m\u1ed9t t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 c\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u00e0ng n\u0103m. B\u1ea3n ch\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a quy t\u1eafc n\u00e0y l\u00e0 gi\u00fap ch\u00fang ta “th\u1ea5y”<\/em> \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a l\u00e3i k\u00e9p theo th\u1eddi gian m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch tr\u1ef1c quan v\u00e0 d\u1ec5 hi\u1ec3u, m\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng c\u1ea7n ph\u1ea3i th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n c\u00e1c ph\u00e9p t\u00ednh logarit ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p.<\/p>

Quy t\u1eafc 72 ra \u0111\u1eddi t\u1eeb r\u1ea5t l\u00e2u v\u00e0 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c cho l\u00e0 c\u00f3 li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn nh\u00e0 to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc v\u0129 \u0111\u1ea1i Luca Pacioli v\u00e0o th\u1ebf k\u1ef7 15. S\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh c\u1ee7a n\u00f3 n\u1eb1m \u1edf s\u1ef1 \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n: ch\u1ec9 v\u1edbi m\u1ed9t ph\u00e9p chia c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n, b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 ai c\u0169ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u1eadp t\u1ee9c c\u00f3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u1ed9t c\u00e1i nh\u00ecn s\u01a1 b\u1ed9 v\u1ec1 ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ee7a d\u00f2ng ti\u1ec1n. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t h\u1eefu \u00edch khi b\u1ea1n so s\u00e1nh c\u00e1c c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 kh\u00e1c nhau ho\u1eb7c khi l\u1eadp k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch cho c\u00e1c m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh l\u1edbn nh\u01b0 ngh\u1ec9 h\u01b0u.<\/p>

C\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c v\u00e0 c\u00e1ch nh\u1ea9m nhanh quy t\u1eafc 72<\/h2>

C\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c c\u1ee7a quy t\u1eafc 72 c\u1ef1c k\u1ef3 \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n:<\/p>

S\u1ed1 n\u0103m \u0111\u1ec3 ti\u1ec1n t\u0103ng g\u1ea5p \u0111\u00f4i \u2248 72 \/ L\u00e3i su\u1ea5t k\u00e9p h\u00e0ng n\u0103m (%)<\/strong><\/p>

Trong \u0111\u00f3:<\/p>

  • 72<\/strong>: L\u00e0 h\u1eb1ng s\u1ed1 c\u1ee7a quy t\u1eafc.<\/li>
  • L\u00e3i su\u1ea5t k\u00e9p h\u00e0ng n\u0103m (%)<\/strong>: L\u00e0 t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng ho\u1eb7c l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t b\u1ea1n nh\u1eadn \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u00e0ng n\u0103m, t\u00ednh theo ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m (v\u00ed d\u1ee5: 8%, 12%,…).<\/li><\/ul>

    C\u00e1ch nh\u1ea9m nhanh:<\/strong> Gi\u1ea3 s\u1eed b\u1ea1n \u0111ang xem x\u00e9t m\u1ed9t qu\u1ef9 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng l\u00e0 9% m\u1ed7i n\u0103m. Thay v\u00ec l\u1ea5y m\u00e1y t\u00ednh, b\u1ea1n ch\u1ec9 c\u1ea7n th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n ph\u00e9p t\u00ednh nh\u1ea9m: 72 chia cho 9 b\u1eb1ng 8. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y c\u00f3 ngh\u0129a l\u00e0, v\u1edbi l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t 9%\/n\u0103m, s\u1ed1 ti\u1ec1n c\u1ee7a b\u1ea1n s\u1ebd m\u1ea5t kho\u1ea3ng 8 n\u0103m<\/strong> \u0111\u1ec3 t\u0103ng g\u1ea5p \u0111\u00f4i. T\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1, v\u1edbi l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t 6%, th\u1eddi gian \u01b0\u1edbc t\u00ednh l\u00e0 12 n\u0103m (72\/6=12).<\/p>

    V\u00ed d\u1ee5 \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng v\u1edbi c\u00e1c m\u1ee9c l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t ph\u1ed5 bi\u1ebfn<\/h2>

    \u0110\u1ec3 h\u00ecnh dung r\u00f5 h\u01a1n, h\u00e3y c\u00f9ng xem b\u1ea3ng \u01b0\u1edbc t\u00ednh d\u01b0\u1edbi \u0111\u00e2y \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng quy t\u1eafc 72 cho c\u00e1c m\u1ee9c l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t ph\u1ed5 bi\u1ebfn trong \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 v\u00e0 ti\u1ebft ki\u1ec7m:<\/p>
    L\u00e3i su\u1ea5t k\u00e9p h\u00e0ng n\u0103m (%)<\/th>S\u1ed1 n\u0103m \u01b0\u1edbc t\u00ednh \u0111\u1ec3 ti\u1ec1n g\u1ea5p \u0111\u00f4i (72 \/ L\u00e3i su\u1ea5t)<\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
    3% (Ti\u1ebft ki\u1ec7m ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng th\u00f4ng th\u01b0\u1eddng)<\/td>24 n\u0103m<\/td><\/tr>
    6% (Tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu ho\u1eb7c qu\u1ef9 c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu tr\u1ea3 c\u1ed5 t\u1ee9c \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh)<\/td>12 n\u0103m<\/td><\/tr>
    8% (L\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn trung b\u00ecnh d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n M\u1ef9)<\/td>9 n\u0103m<\/td><\/tr>
    10% (K\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng t\u1eeb m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 qu\u1ef9 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 t\u00edch c\u1ef1c)<\/td>7.2 n\u0103m<\/td><\/tr>
    12% (K\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng cao t\u1eeb \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 m\u1ea1o hi\u1ec3m ho\u1eb7c c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng)<\/td>6 n\u0103m<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>

    Qua b\u1ea3ng tr\u00ean, b\u1ea1n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 th\u1ea5y s\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 v\u1ec1 th\u1eddi gian. M\u1ed9t kho\u1ea3n ti\u1ec1n g\u1eedi ti\u1ebft ki\u1ec7m v\u1edbi l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t 3% s\u1ebd c\u1ea7n t\u1edbi 24 n\u0103m \u0111\u1ec3 nh\u00e2n \u0111\u00f4i, trong khi n\u1ebfu \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c sinh l\u1eddi 12%\/n\u0103m, th\u1eddi gian n\u00e0y ch\u1ec9 c\u00f2n 6 n\u0103m. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y minh h\u1ecda r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng t\u1ea1i sao vi\u1ec7c t\u00ecm ki\u1ebfm c\u00e1c k\u00eanh \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 h\u01a1n l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t ti\u1ebft ki\u1ec7m th\u00f4ng th\u01b0\u1eddng l\u1ea1i quan tr\u1ecdng \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n.<\/p>

    \u0110\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c c\u1ee7a quy t\u1eafc 72 so v\u1edbi c\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ea7y \u0111\u1ee7<\/h2>

    Quy t\u1eafc 72 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t ph\u00e9p t\u00ednh g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00fang<\/em>, kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t c\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c tuy\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed1i. C\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ec3 t\u00ednh th\u1eddi gian ti\u1ec1n t\u0103ng g\u1ea5p \u0111\u00f4i l\u00e0:<\/p>

    n = ln(2) \/ ln(1 + r)<\/strong><\/p>

    Trong \u0111\u00f3: n<\/em> l\u00e0 s\u1ed1 k\u1ef3, r<\/em> l\u00e0 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t m\u1ed7i k\u1ef3, v\u00e0 ln<\/em> l\u00e0 logarit t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean.<\/p>

    V\u1eady quy t\u1eafc 72 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ebfn \u0111\u00e2u? N\u00f3 ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ef1c k\u1ef3 t\u1ed1t trong ph\u1ea1m vi l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t t\u1eeb 6% \u0111\u1ebfn 10%, l\u00e0 ph\u1ea1m vi ph\u1ed5 bi\u1ebfn nh\u1ea5t trong \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n. Khi l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t qu\u00e1 th\u1ea5p (d\u01b0\u1edbi 1%) ho\u1eb7c qu\u00e1 cao (tr\u00ean 20%), sai s\u1ed1 s\u1ebd t\u0103ng l\u00ean. L\u00fd do ch\u1ecdn s\u1ed1 72 l\u00e0 v\u00ec n\u00f3 c\u00f3 nhi\u1ec1u \u01b0\u1edbc s\u1ed1 (2, 3, 4, 6, 8, 9, 12,…) gi\u00fap t\u00ednh nh\u1ea9m d\u1ec5 d\u00e0ng, v\u00e0 n\u00f3 l\u00e0 con s\u1ed1 g\u1ea7n v\u1edbi k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 c\u1ee7a 100 * ln(2) (\u2248 69.3). M\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 bi\u1ebfn th\u1ec3 kh\u00e1c nh\u01b0 Quy t\u1eafc 69.3 ho\u1eb7c Quy t\u1eafc 70 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c h\u01a1n m\u1ed9t ch\u00fat v\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft, nh\u01b0ng Quy t\u1eafc 72 v\u1eabn \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u01b0a chu\u1ed9ng nh\u1edd v\u00e0o t\u00ednh ti\u1ec7n l\u1ee3i khi nh\u1ea9m t\u00ednh.<\/p>

    \u1ee8ng d\u1ee5ng quy t\u1eafc 72 v\u00e0o l\u1eadp k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh<\/h2>

    Quy t\u1eafc 72 kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t m\u1eb9o t\u00ednh to\u00e1n th\u00fa v\u1ecb, m\u00e0 c\u00f2n l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 l\u1eadp k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh c\u00e1 nh\u00e2n v\u00f4 c\u00f9ng thi\u1ebft th\u1ef1c. D\u01b0\u1edbi \u0111\u00e2y l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 \u1ee9ng d\u1ee5ng c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3:<\/p>

    • Thi\u1ebft l\u1eadp m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0:<\/strong> N\u1ebfu b\u1ea1n mu\u1ed1n s\u1ed1 ti\u1ec1n ngh\u1ec9 h\u01b0u c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh t\u0103ng g\u1ea5p \u0111\u00f4i trong 15 n\u0103m n\u1eefa, quy t\u1eafc 72 cho bi\u1ebft b\u1ea1n c\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea1t m\u1ee9c l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn trung b\u00ecnh kho\u1ea3ng 4.8%\/n\u0103m (72\/15=4.8). \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y gi\u00fap b\u1ea1n l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn danh m\u1ee5c \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c r\u1ee7i ro c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eadn.<\/li>
    • Hi\u1ec3u t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t:<\/strong> B\u1ea1n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 d\u00f9ng quy t\u1eafc 72 \u0111\u1ec3 \u01b0\u1edbc t\u00ednh s\u1ee9c mua c\u1ee7a ti\u1ec1n gi\u1ea3m m\u1ed9t n\u1eeda. V\u00ed d\u1ee5, v\u1edbi t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t trung b\u00ecnh 4%, s\u1ee9c mua c\u1ee7a s\u1ed1 ti\u1ec1n b\u1ea1n gi\u1eef d\u01b0\u1edbi d\u1ea1ng ti\u1ec1n m\u1eb7t s\u1ebd gi\u1ea3m m\u1ed9t n\u1eeda sau kho\u1ea3ng 18 n\u0103m (72\/4=18). \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y nh\u1ea5n m\u1ea1nh s\u1ef1 c\u1ea7n thi\u1ebft c\u1ee7a vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 \u0111\u1ec3 v\u01b0\u1ee3t qua l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t.<\/li>
    • So s\u00e1nh c\u00e1c l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0:<\/strong> Khi \u0111\u1ee9ng tr\u01b0\u1edbc hai l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng kh\u00e1c nhau, quy t\u1eafc 72 gi\u00fap b\u1ea1n nhanh ch\u00f3ng so s\u00e1nh th\u1eddi gian nh\u00e2n \u0111\u00f4i. S\u1ef1 ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch v\u00e0i ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u1ea1o ra kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t h\u00e0ng ch\u1ee5c n\u0103m v\u1ec1 th\u1eddi gian \u0111\u1ea1t m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau.<\/li><\/ul>\n

      Ph\u00e9p t\u00ednh g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00fang v\u00e0 nh\u1eefng tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p c\u1ea7n l\u01b0u \u00fd<\/h2>

      Quy t\u1eafc 72 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 \u01b0\u1edbc t\u00ednh tuy\u1ec7t v\u1eddi, nh\u01b0ng n\u00f3 kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ecbnh lu\u1eadt to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c. N\u00f3 ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u1ed1t nh\u1ea5t trong m\u1ed9t kho\u1ea3ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t ph\u1ed5 bi\u1ebfn, th\u01b0\u1eddng t\u1eeb 6% \u0111\u1ebfn 10%. Khi b\u1ea1n di chuy\u1ec3n ra ngo\u00e0i ph\u1ea1m vi n\u00e0y, \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c c\u1ee7a quy t\u1eafc s\u1ebd gi\u1ea3m d\u1ea7n. V\u00ed d\u1ee5, v\u1edbi l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t r\u1ea5t cao (tr\u00ean 20%), quy t\u1eafc 72 c\u00f3 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 th\u1ea5p th\u1eddi gian c\u1ea7n thi\u1ebft. Ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i, v\u1edbi l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t c\u1ef1c th\u1ea5p (d\u01b0\u1edbi 1%), n\u00f3 l\u1ea1i c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u01b0\u1edbc t\u00ednh qu\u00e1 cao.<\/p>

      M\u1ed9t sai l\u1ea7m ph\u1ed5 bi\u1ebfn l\u00e0 \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng quy t\u1eafc 72 cho c\u00e1c kho\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u00f3 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng m\u1ea1nh, nh\u01b0 c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu. Quy t\u1eafc n\u00e0y gi\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t c\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ecbnh, trong khi th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n th\u00ec kh\u00f4ng. \u01af\u1edbc t\u00ednh “th\u1eddi gian g\u1ea5p \u0111\u00f4i” t\u1eeb quy t\u1eafc 72 trong tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p n\u00e0y ch\u1ec9 n\u00ean \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c xem nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t con s\u1ed1 tham kh\u1ea3o trung b\u00ecnh d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n, kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i m\u1ed9t d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn cho t\u1eebng n\u0103m.<\/p>

      Bi\u1ebfn th\u1ec3 c\u1ee7a quy t\u1eafc: Khi n\u00e0o d\u00f9ng 69, 70 hay 72?<\/h3>

      Con s\u1ed1 72 kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 duy nh\u1ea5t. Trong th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh, b\u1ea1n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 b\u1eaft g\u1eb7p c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn th\u1ec3 nh\u01b0 Quy t\u1eafc 69, Quy t\u1eafc 70 ho\u1eb7c Quy t\u1eafc 72. S\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t n\u00e0y li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c v\u00e0 c\u00e1ch t\u00ednh l\u00e3i. Quy t\u1eafc 69.3 th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 l\u00e0 c\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c nh\u1ea5t khi t\u00ednh l\u00e3i li\u00ean t\u1ee5c (continuous compounding). Tuy nhi\u00ean, 72 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u01b0a chu\u1ed9ng v\u00ec n\u00f3 chia h\u1ebft cho nhi\u1ec1u s\u1ed1 (2,3,4,6,8,9,12…) n\u00ean r\u1ea5t thu\u1eadn ti\u1ec7n cho vi\u1ec7c t\u00ednh nh\u1ea9m.<\/p>

      • Quy t\u1eafc 70:<\/strong> Th\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c d\u00f9ng \u0111\u1ec3 \u01b0\u1edbc t\u00ednh th\u1eddi gian g\u1ea5p \u0111\u00f4i d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng (nh\u01b0 GDP, l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t) h\u01a1n l\u00e0 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0.<\/li>
      • Quy t\u1eafc 72:<\/strong> L\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn ph\u1ed5 bi\u1ebfn nh\u1ea5t cho l\u00e3i k\u00e9p h\u00e0ng n\u0103m, c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng gi\u1eefa \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 ti\u1ec7n l\u1ee3i.<\/li>
      • Quy t\u1eafc 69 (ho\u1eb7c 69.3):<\/strong> Cung c\u1ea5p k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c h\u01a1n cho l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t th\u1ea5p ho\u1eb7c khi t\u00ednh l\u00e3i li\u00ean t\u1ee5c, nh\u01b0ng kh\u00f3 t\u00ednh nh\u1ea9m h\u01a1n.<\/li><\/ul>

        Ki\u1ec3m tra v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed1i chi\u1ebfu k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 v\u1edbi c\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc<\/h2>

        \u0110\u1ec3 ki\u1ec3m tra \u0111\u1ed9 tin c\u1eady c\u1ee7a Quy t\u1eafc 72, ch\u00fang ta c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 so s\u00e1nh n\u00f3 v\u1edbi c\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc \u0111\u1ea7y \u0111\u1ee7 c\u1ee7a l\u00e3i k\u00e9p. C\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c t\u00ednh th\u1eddi gian (n) \u0111\u1ec3 m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 ti\u1ec1n g\u1ea5p \u0111\u00f4i l\u00e0: n = ln(2) \/ ln(1 + r)<\/code>, trong \u0111\u00f3 ln<\/code> l\u00e0 logarit t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean v\u00e0 r<\/code> l\u00e0 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t h\u00e0ng k\u1ef3 (v\u00ed d\u1ee5 8% = 0.08).<\/p>

        B\u1ea3ng so s\u00e1nh d\u01b0\u1edbi \u0111\u00e2y s\u1ebd cho th\u1ea5y s\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t gi\u1eefa hai ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p:<\/p>
        L\u00e3i su\u1ea5t h\u00e0ng n\u0103m<\/th>Quy t\u1eafc 72 (N\u0103m)<\/th>C\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c (N\u0103m)<\/th>Ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch<\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
        4%<\/td>72 \/ 4 = 18.0<\/td>17.67<\/td>+0.33 n\u0103m<\/td><\/tr>
        8%<\/td>72 \/ 8 = 9.0<\/td>9.01<\/td>-0.01 n\u0103m<\/td><\/tr>
        12%<\/td>72 \/ 12 = 6.0<\/td>6.12<\/td>-0.12 n\u0103m<\/td><\/tr>
        18%<\/td>72 \/ 18 = 4.0<\/td>4.19<\/td>-0.19 n\u0103m<\/td><\/tr>
        24%<\/td>72 \/ 24 = 3.0<\/td>3.22<\/td>-0.22 n\u0103m<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>

        Nh\u01b0 b\u1ea1n th\u1ea5y, \u1edf m\u1ee9c l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t 8%, quy t\u1eafc 72 cho k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 g\u1ea7n nh\u01b0 ho\u00e0n h\u1ea3o. S\u1ef1 ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch t\u0103ng l\u00ean khi l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t qu\u00e1 cao ho\u1eb7c qu\u00e1 th\u1ea5p, nh\u01b0ng nh\u00ecn chung v\u1eabn trong ph\u1ea1m vi ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eadn \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c cho m\u1ee5c \u0111\u00edch \u01b0\u1edbc t\u00ednh nhanh.<\/p>

        M\u1eb9o t\u00ednh nhanh v\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh cho ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c h\u01a1n<\/h3>

        N\u1ebfu b\u1ea1n mu\u1ed1n m\u1ed9t \u01b0\u1edbc t\u00ednh nhanh nh\u01b0ng ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c h\u01a1n m\u1ed9t ch\u00fat so v\u1edbi quy t\u1eafc 72 ti\u00eau chu\u1ea9n, h\u00e3y th\u1eed m\u1eb9o sau: \u0110i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh t\u1eed s\u1ed1 theo l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t<\/strong>. V\u1edbi l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t kho\u1ea3ng 2-8%, d\u00f9ng 72. T\u1eeb 8-15%, c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 d\u00f9ng 74. Tr\u00ean 15%, b\u1ea1n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 th\u1eed d\u00f9ng 76 ho\u1eb7c 78. Nguy\u00ean t\u1eafc l\u00e0 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t c\u00e0ng cao, t\u1eed s\u1ed1 c\u00e0ng c\u1ea7n t\u0103ng l\u00ean \u0111\u1ec3 b\u00f9 \u0111\u1eafp cho sai s\u1ed1.<\/p>

        M\u1ed9t m\u1eb9o kh\u00e1c l\u00e0 t\u00ednh nh\u1ea9m qua c\u00e1c b\u01b0\u1edbc nh\u1ecf<\/strong>. V\u00ed d\u1ee5 v\u1edbi l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t 9%, thay v\u00ec t\u00ednh 72\/9, b\u1ea1n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u00ednh: 72\/10 = 7.2, r\u1ed3i c\u1ed9ng th\u00eam 10% c\u1ee7a 7.2 (kho\u1ea3ng 0.72) \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ~7.9 n\u0103m. C\u00e1ch n\u00e0y h\u01a1i ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p nh\u01b0ng r\u00e8n luy\u1ec7n t\u01b0 duy s\u1ed1 h\u1ecdc.<\/p>

        \u1ee8ng d\u1ee5ng th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf: L\u1eadp k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch ngh\u1ec9 h\u01b0u v\u00e0 m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh<\/h2>

        Quy t\u1eafc 72 th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 t\u1ecfa s\u00e1ng khi b\u1ea1n d\u00f9ng n\u00f3 \u0111\u1ec3 h\u00ecnh dung c\u00e1c m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n. Gi\u1ea3 s\u1eed b\u1ea1n 30 tu\u1ed5i v\u00e0 mu\u1ed1n ngh\u1ec9 h\u01b0u \u1edf tu\u1ed5i 60 v\u1edbi s\u1ed1 ti\u1ec1n g\u1ea5p \u0111\u00f4i hi\u1ec7n c\u00f3. Quy t\u1eafc 72 cho bi\u1ebft b\u1ea1n c\u1ea7n m\u1ed9t danh m\u1ee5c \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u00f3 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn trung b\u00ecnh kho\u1ea3ng 72\/30 = 2.4% m\u1ed7i n\u0103m. \u0110i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00f3 c\u00f3 v\u1ebb d\u1ec5 d\u00e0ng. Nh\u01b0ng n\u1ebfu b\u1ea1n mu\u1ed1n ti\u1ec1n g\u1ea5p \u0111\u00f4i hai l\u1ea7n (t\u1ee9c g\u1ea5p 4 l\u1ea7n) trong 30 n\u0103m \u0111\u00f3, b\u1ea1n c\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea1t m\u1ee9c l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t cao h\u01a1n nhi\u1ec1u.<\/p>

        H\u00e3y ngh\u0129 theo c\u00e1ch n\u00e0y: M\u1ed7i l\u1ea7n ti\u1ec1n c\u1ee7a b\u1ea1n g\u1ea5p \u0111\u00f4i l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t “c\u1ed9t m\u1ed1c nh\u00e2n \u0111\u00f4i”. Quy t\u1eafc 72 gi\u00fap b\u1ea1n v\u1ebd n\u00ean m\u1ed9t l\u1ed9 tr\u00ecnh v\u1edbi c\u00e1c c\u1ed9t m\u1ed1c \u0111\u00f3. N\u1ebfu b\u1ea1n \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 v\u1edbi l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng 7.2%, ti\u1ec1n c\u1ee7a b\u1ea1n s\u1ebd nh\u00e2n \u0111\u00f4i sau m\u1ed7i 10 n\u0103m. \u1ede tu\u1ed5i 30, b\u1ea1n c\u00f3 500 tri\u1ec7u. \u1ede tu\u1ed5i 40, b\u1ea1n s\u1ebd c\u00f3 ~1 t\u1ef7. \u1ede tu\u1ed5i 50, ~2 t\u1ef7. V\u00e0 \u1edf tu\u1ed5i 60, ~4 t\u1ef7. Vi\u1ec7c nh\u00ecn th\u1ea5y l\u1ed9 tr\u00ecnh r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng n\u00e0y t\u1ea1o \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c c\u1ef1c k\u1ef3 l\u1edbn \u0111\u1ec3 b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 s\u1edbm v\u00e0 ki\u00ean tr\u00ec.<\/p>

        T\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ed9ng h\u00f3a t\u00ednh to\u00e1n v\u1edbi Google Sheets\/Excel<\/h3>

        B\u1ea1n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 d\u1ec5 d\u00e0ng t\u1ea1o m\u1ed9t c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ec3 quan s\u00e1t s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh c\u1ee7a l\u00e3i k\u00e9p v\u00e0 ki\u1ec3m tra quy t\u1eafc 72. Trong Google Sheets ho\u1eb7c Excel, h\u00e3y thi\u1ebft l\u1eadp nh\u01b0 sau:<\/p>

        1. C\u1ed9t A (N\u0103m):<\/strong> S\u1ed1 n\u0103m t\u1eeb 0 \u0111\u1ebfn 50.<\/li>
        2. C\u1ed9t B (S\u1ed1 ti\u1ec1n v\u1edbi c\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c):<\/strong> \u00d4 B2 nh\u1eadp s\u1ed1 v\u1ed1n ban \u0111\u1ea7u (v\u00ed d\u1ee5 100). \u00d4 B3 nh\u1eadp c\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c: =B2*(1+$D$1)<\/code> v\u00e0 k\u00e9o xu\u1ed1ng. Trong \u0111\u00f3 \u00f4 D1 l\u00e0 \u00f4 ch\u1ee9a l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t (v\u00ed d\u1ee5 8%).<\/li>
        3. C\u1ed9t C (\u01af\u1edbc t\u00ednh t\u1eeb Quy t\u1eafc 72):<\/strong> T\u1ea1i \u00f4 C1, nh\u1eadp c\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ec3 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh n\u0103m g\u1ea5p \u0111\u00f4i: =ROUND(72\/($D$1*100),0)<\/code>. Sau \u0111\u00f3, b\u1ea1n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u00e1nh d\u1ea5u c\u00e1c n\u0103m n\u00e0y tr\u00ean bi\u1ec3u \u0111\u1ed3.<\/li><\/ol>

          B\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch v\u1ebd bi\u1ec3u \u0111\u1ed3 \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng cho C\u1ed9t B, b\u1ea1n s\u1ebd th\u1ea5y \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng cong t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng theo c\u1ea5p s\u1ed1 nh\u00e2n. Vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u00e1nh d\u1ea5u c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec3m g\u1ea5p \u0111\u00f4i d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean Quy t\u1eafc 72 s\u1ebd cho b\u1ea1n th\u1ea5y c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 n\u00e0y \u01b0\u1edbc t\u00ednh c\u00e1c c\u1ed9t m\u1ed1c quan tr\u1ecdng nh\u01b0 th\u1ebf n\u00e0o so v\u1edbi \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng cong th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf. \u0110\u00e2y l\u00e0 c\u00e1ch tr\u1ef1c quan nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ec3 hi\u1ec3u v\u00e0 tin t\u01b0\u1edfng v\u00e0o c\u1ea3 l\u00e3i k\u00e9p l\u1eabn quy t\u1eafc \u01b0\u1edbc t\u00ednh c\u1ee7a n\u00f3.<\/p>

          Nh\u01b0 v\u1eady, ngo\u00e0i vi\u1ec7c hi\u1ec3u b\u1ea3n ch\u1ea5t, vi\u1ec7c n\u1eafm \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00e1c g\u00f3c c\u1ea1nh th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf, h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf v\u00e0 m\u1eb9o v\u1eb7t s\u1ebd bi\u1ebfn Quy t\u1eafc 72 t\u1eeb m\u1ed9t c\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n th\u00e0nh m\u1ed9t ng\u01b0\u1eddi b\u1ea1n \u0111\u1ed3ng h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1eafc l\u1ef1c trong m\u1ecdi cu\u1ed9c th\u1ea3o lu\u1eadn v\u00e0 l\u1eadp k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh c\u00e1 nh\u00e2n.<\/p>\n

          Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch \u0111\u1ed9 nh\u1ea1y c\u1ee7a Quy t\u1eafc 72 v\u1edbi bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t<\/h2>

          Trong th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf, l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 hi\u1ebfm khi c\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ecbnh su\u1ed1t m\u1ed9t th\u1eddi gian d\u00e0i. Quy t\u1eafc 72 t\u1ecf ra \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t h\u1eefu \u00edch khi gi\u00fap nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 nhanh t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a nh\u1eefng thay \u0111\u1ed5i nh\u1ecf trong l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ebfn m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau nh\u00e2n \u0111\u00f4i t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n. M\u1ed9t ph\u00e2n t\u00edch \u0111\u1ed9 nh\u1ea1y \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ti\u1ebft l\u1ed9 nh\u1eefng hi\u1ec3u bi\u1ebft quan tr\u1ecdng.<\/p>

          V\u00ed d\u1ee5, v\u1edbi l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t 6%, th\u1eddi gian nh\u00e2n \u0111\u00f4i l\u00e0 12 n\u0103m. N\u1ebfu l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t t\u0103ng l\u00ean 8%, th\u1eddi gian r\u00fat ng\u1eafn xu\u1ed1ng c\u00f2n 9 n\u0103m \u2013 m\u1ed9t s\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ebfn 3 n\u0103m. Ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i, n\u1ebfu l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t gi\u1ea3m xu\u1ed1ng 4%, b\u1ea1n s\u1ebd c\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ebfn 18 n\u0103m. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y cho th\u1ea5y, trong m\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t th\u1ea5p, vi\u1ec7c t\u00ecm ki\u1ebfm th\u00eam d\u00f9 ch\u1ec9 1-2% l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 r\u00fat ng\u1eafn \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 h\u00e0nh tr\u00ecnh t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh. B\u1ea3ng d\u01b0\u1edbi \u0111\u00e2y minh h\u1ecda m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng n\u00e0y:<\/p>
          L\u00e3i su\u1ea5t h\u00e0ng n\u0103m (%)<\/th>Th\u1eddi gian nh\u00e2n \u0111\u00f4i (n\u0103m) theo Quy t\u1eafc 72<\/th>Thay \u0111\u1ed5i th\u1eddi gian so v\u1edbi m\u1ed1c 6%<\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
          4<\/td>18<\/td>+6 n\u0103m<\/td><\/tr>
          5<\/td>14.4<\/td>+2.4 n\u0103m<\/td><\/tr>
          6<\/strong><\/td>12<\/strong><\/td>M\u1ed1c so s\u00e1nh<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
          7<\/td>~10.3<\/td>-1.7 n\u0103m<\/td><\/tr>
          8<\/td>9<\/td>-3 n\u0103m<\/td><\/tr>
          9<\/td>8<\/td>-4 n\u0103m<\/td><\/tr>
          10<\/td>7.2<\/td>-4.8 n\u0103m<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>

          Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch n\u00e0y nh\u1ea5n m\u1ea1nh t\u1ea7m quan tr\u1ecdng c\u1ee7a vi\u1ec7c t\u00e1i \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t<\/strong> v\u00e0 l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn k\u00eanh \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u00f3 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t th\u1ef1c (sau l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t) t\u00edch c\u1ef1c, ngay c\u1ea3 khi ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch ban \u0111\u1ea7u c\u00f3 v\u1ebb nh\u1ecf.<\/p>

          Quy tr\u00ecnh 5 b\u01b0\u1edbc \u1ee9ng d\u1ee5ng Quy t\u1eafc 72 v\u00e0o chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 \u0111\u1ecbnh k\u1ef3 (DCA)<\/h2>

          Quy t\u1eafc 72 th\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng cho m\u1ed9t kho\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 m\u1ed9t l\u1ea7n. Tuy nhi\u00ean, s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 c\u1ee7a n\u00f3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u00e1t huy khi k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 \u0111\u1ecbnh k\u1ef3 (Dollar-Cost Averaging – DCA). D\u01b0\u1edbi \u0111\u00e2y l\u00e0 quy tr\u00ecnh th\u1ef1c h\u00e0nh:<\/p>

          1. X\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau nh\u00e2n \u0111\u00f4i t\u1ed5ng gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb danh m\u1ee5c<\/strong>: Kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i s\u1ed1 ti\u1ec1n g\u1ed1c ban \u0111\u1ea7u, m\u00e0 l\u00e0 to\u00e0n b\u1ed9 gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n b\u1ea1n \u0111ang h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u1edbi.<\/li>
          2. \u01af\u1edbc t\u00ednh l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t k\u00e9p k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng<\/strong>: D\u1ef1a tr\u00ean l\u1ecbch s\u1eed v\u00e0 tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c lo\u1ea1i t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n trong danh m\u1ee5c (c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu, tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu, b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n…). S\u1eed d\u1ee5ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng th\u1eadn tr\u1ecdng.<\/li>
          3. T\u00ednh th\u1eddi gian c\u1ea7n thi\u1ebft b\u1eb1ng Quy t\u1eafc 72<\/strong>: Chia 72 cho l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng \u0111\u1ec3 c\u00f3 s\u1ed1 n\u0103m \u01b0\u1edbc t\u00ednh nh\u00e2n \u0111\u00f4i n\u1ebfu kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 th\u00eam d\u00f2ng ti\u1ec1n v\u00e0o<\/em>.<\/li>
          4. \u0110i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh v\u1edbi d\u00f2ng ti\u1ec1n \u0111\u1ecbnh k\u1ef3<\/strong>: Hi\u1ec3u r\u1eb1ng vi\u1ec7c b\u1ed5 sung v\u1ed1n \u0111\u1ecbnh k\u1ef3 s\u1ebd r\u00fat ng\u1eafn \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 th\u1eddi gian so v\u1edbi con s\u1ed1 t\u1eeb b\u01b0\u1edbc 3. Th\u1eddi gian nh\u00e2n \u0111\u00f4i th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf s\u1ebd ng\u1eafn h\u01a1n.<\/li>
          5. Thi\u1ebft l\u1eadp l\u1ecbch tr\u00ecnh v\u00e0 k\u1ef7 lu\u1eadt \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0<\/strong>: D\u1ef1a tr\u00ean khung th\u1eddi gian \u0111\u00e3 \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh, cam k\u1ebft \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 \u0111\u1ecbnh k\u1ef3 m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch k\u1ef7 lu\u1eadt, b\u1ea5t ch\u1ea5p bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n.<\/li><\/ol>

            V\u00ed d\u1ee5 th\u1ef1c h\u00e0nh: B\u1ea1n c\u00f3 100 tri\u1ec7u VN\u0110 ban \u0111\u1ea7u v\u00e0 d\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ecbnh \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 th\u00eam 10 tri\u1ec7u m\u1ed7i th\u00e1ng v\u00e0o m\u1ed9t qu\u1ef9 v\u1edbi l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t k\u00e9p k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng 12%\/n\u0103m. Quy t\u1eafc 72 cho th\u1ea5y kho\u1ea3n 100 tri\u1ec7u ban \u0111\u1ea7u s\u1ebd nh\u00e2n \u0111\u00f4i sau ~6 n\u0103m. Tuy nhi\u00ean, v\u1edbi d\u00f2ng ti\u1ec1n v\u00e0o \u0111\u1ec1u \u0111\u1eb7n, m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau nh\u00e2n \u0111\u00f4i t\u1ed5ng gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb danh m\u1ee5c<\/strong> c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c trong kho\u1ea3ng 3.5-4 n\u0103m \u2013 nhanh h\u01a1n r\u1ea5t nhi\u1ec1u.<\/p>

            K\u1ebft h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t: T\u00ednh to\u00e1n l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t th\u1ef1c<\/h3>

            \u1ee8ng d\u1ee5ng quan tr\u1ecdng nh\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a Quy t\u1eafc 72 trong ho\u1ea1ch \u0111\u1ecbnh d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n l\u00e0 gi\u00fap t\u00ednh to\u00e1n th\u1eddi gian nh\u00e2n \u0111\u00f4i s\u1ee9c mua<\/strong>, kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 nh\u00e2n \u0111\u00f4i con s\u1ed1 tr\u00ean gi\u1ea5y t\u1edd. C\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh l\u00e0:<\/p>

            L\u00e3i su\u1ea5t th\u1ef1c \u2248 L\u00e3i su\u1ea5t danh ngh\u0129a – T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng<\/strong><\/p>

            Sau \u0111\u00f3, \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng Quy t\u1eafc 72 v\u1edbi l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t th\u1ef1c. Ch\u1eb3ng h\u1ea1n, n\u1ebfu danh m\u1ee5c c\u1ee7a b\u1ea1n k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng sinh l\u1eddi 10%\/n\u0103m, nh\u01b0ng l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t trung b\u00ecnh l\u00e0 4%, th\u00ec l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t th\u1ef1c ch\u1ec9 c\u00f2n kho\u1ea3ng 6%. Khi \u0111\u00f3, th\u1eddi gian \u0111\u1ec3 s\u1ee9c mua<\/em> c\u1ee7a s\u1ed1 ti\u1ec1n \u0111\u00f3 nh\u00e2n \u0111\u00f4i l\u00e0 72\/6 = 12 n\u0103m, ch\u1ee9 kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i 7.2 n\u0103m nh\u01b0 t\u00ednh v\u1edbi l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t danh ngh\u0129a. S\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t n\u00e0y l\u00e0 ch\u00eca kh\u00f3a \u0111\u1ec3 thi\u1ebft l\u1eadp c\u00e1c m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf.<\/p>

            M\u1edf r\u1ed9ng: Quy t\u1eafc 72 trong ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n v\u00e0 qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd r\u1ee7i ro<\/h2>

            Nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng Quy t\u1eafc 72 nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 \u0111\u1ecbnh t\u00ednh \u0111\u1ec3 so s\u00e1nh h\u1eadu qu\u1ea3 c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n kh\u00e1c nhau.<\/p>

            • \u0110\u00e1nh \u0111\u1ed5i r\u1ee7i ro \u2013 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn<\/strong>: Gi\u1eefa danh m\u1ee5c tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu an to\u00e0n v\u1edbi l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t 4% (nh\u00e2n \u0111\u00f4i sau 18 n\u0103m) v\u00e0 danh m\u1ee5c c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu r\u1ee7i ro h\u01a1n v\u1edbi l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng 9% (nh\u00e2n \u0111\u00f4i sau 8 n\u0103m), Quy t\u1eafc 72 gi\u00fap h\u00ecnh dung r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng s\u1ef1 \u0111\u00e1nh \u0111\u1ed5i v\u1ec1 th\u1eddi gian. C\u00e2u h\u1ecfi \u0111\u1eb7t ra l\u00e0: B\u1ea1n c\u00f3 s\u1eb5n s\u00e0ng ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eadn r\u1ee7i ro cao h\u01a1n \u0111\u1ec3 r\u00fat ng\u1eafn th\u1eddi gian \u0111\u1ea1t m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau h\u01a1n 10 n\u0103m kh\u00f4ng?<\/li>
            • \u0110\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 chi ph\u00ed c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i c\u1ee7a vi\u1ec7c gi\u1eef ti\u1ec1n m\u1eb7t<\/strong>: Trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng, nhi\u1ec1u ng\u01b0\u1eddi c\u00f3 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng r\u00fat ti\u1ec1n ra v\u00e0 gi\u1eef ti\u1ec1n m\u1eb7t v\u1edbi l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t 0-1%. Quy t\u1eafc 72 cho th\u1ea5y, \u1edf m\u1ee9c 1%, ti\u1ec1n c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd s\u1ebd m\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ebfn 72 n\u0103m \u0111\u1ec3 nh\u00e2n \u0111\u00f4i (ch\u01b0a t\u00ednh l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t). So s\u00e1nh v\u1edbi l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n trung b\u00ecnh c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n (~7-10%), chi ph\u00ed c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i c\u1ee7a vi\u1ec7c "ng\u1ed3i ngo\u00e0i th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng" l\u00e0 c\u1ef1c k\u1ef3 l\u1edbn v\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t th\u1eddi gian.<\/li>
            • L\u1eadp k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch cho c\u00e1c m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau \u0111a d\u1ea1ng<\/strong>: B\u1ea1n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng c\u00f9ng l\u00fac nhi\u1ec1u ph\u00e9p t\u00ednh v\u1edbi c\u00e1c l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t kh\u00e1c nhau cho t\u1eebng m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau. V\u00ed d\u1ee5: M\u1ee5c ti\u00eau gi\u00e1o d\u1ee5c v\u1edbi qu\u1ef9 b\u1ea3o th\u1ee7 (l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t 5%, nh\u00e2n \u0111\u00f4i sau 14.4 n\u0103m), m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau ngh\u1ec9 h\u01b0u v\u1edbi qu\u1ef9 c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng (l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t 7%, nh\u00e2n \u0111\u00f4i sau ~10.3 n\u0103m), v\u00e0 m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 m\u1ea1o hi\u1ec3m (l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng 15%, nh\u00e2n \u0111\u00f4i sau 4.8 n\u0103m). \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y gi\u00fap x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng m\u1ed9t l\u1ed9 tr\u00ecnh t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh \u0111a t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9.<\/li><\/ul>

              H\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf c\u1ea7n nh\u1edb khi s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng trong ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n<\/h3>

              Quy t\u1eafc 72 ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u1ed1t nh\u1ea5t v\u1edbi gi\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t c\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u00e0 k\u00e9p li\u00ean t\u1ee5c<\/strong>. Trong th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi th\u1ef1c, th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng, l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ec1u v\u00e0 tr\u00ecnh t\u1ef1 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn (sequence of returns) c\u00f3 \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng l\u1edbn, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111ang trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n r\u00fat ti\u1ec1n. Do \u0111\u00f3, n\u00f3 n\u00ean \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c d\u00f9ng nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t la b\u00e0n \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u01b0\u1edbng ban \u0111\u1ea7u<\/em> ch\u1ee9 kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i m\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ed3ng h\u1ed3 b\u1ea5m gi\u1edd ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c<\/em> cho danh m\u1ee5c ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p. Vi\u1ec7c \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh danh m\u1ee5c \u0111\u1ecbnh k\u1ef3 v\u00e0 ki\u1ec3m tra l\u1ea1i c\u00e1c gi\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u1ec1 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t l\u00e0 b\u1eaft bu\u1ed9c.<\/p>\n

              Quy T\u1eafc 72 Trong B\u1ed1i C\u1ea3nh \u0110\u1ea7u T\u01b0 D\u00e0i H\u1ea1n V\u00e0 Th\u1ecb Tr\u01b0\u1eddng Bi\u1ebfn \u0110\u1ed9ng<\/h2>

              Trong th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf, l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t hi\u1ebfm khi c\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ecbnh su\u1ed1t h\u00e0ng th\u1eadp k\u1ef7. Quy t\u1eafc 72 t\u1ecf ra \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t h\u1eefu \u00edch khi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 \u0111\u1ec3 h\u00ecnh dung s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh c\u1ee7a vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 ki\u00ean \u0111\u1ecbnh theo th\u1eddi gian<\/strong>, b\u1ea5t ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eefng bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng. Khi b\u1ea1n \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 \u0111\u1ecbnh k\u1ef3 (DCA) v\u00e0o m\u1ed9t qu\u1ef9 ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 ho\u1eb7c danh m\u1ee5c c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu v\u1edbi k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn trung b\u00ecnh d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n, quy t\u1eafc 72 gi\u00fap b\u1ea1n c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t c\u00e1i nh\u00ecn l\u1ea1c quan v\u00e0 ki\u00ean nh\u1eabn.<\/p>

              V\u00ed d\u1ee5, n\u1ebfu b\u1ea1n k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng danh m\u1ee5c \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ea1t l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn b\u00ecnh qu\u00e2n 8%\/n\u0103m<\/strong> v\u1ec1 d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n, quy t\u1eafc 72 cho bi\u1ebft s\u1ed1 v\u1ed1n s\u1ebd t\u0103ng g\u1ea5p \u0111\u00f4i sau kho\u1ea3ng 9 n\u0103m (72 \/ 8 = 9). \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 m\u1ed7i n\u0103m b\u1ea1n \u0111\u1ec1u ki\u1ebfm \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c 8%. S\u1ebd c\u00f3 nh\u1eefng n\u0103m l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn \u00e2m, nh\u1eefng n\u0103m l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn v\u01b0\u1ee3t tr\u1ed9i. Quy t\u1eafc 72 ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u1ed1t nh\u1ea5t v\u1edbi l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t k\u00e9p hi\u1ec7u d\u1ee5ng trung b\u00ecnh<\/strong> qua m\u1ed9t chu k\u1ef3 \u0111\u1ee7 d\u00e0i, gi\u00fap nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 b\u00ecnh t\u0129nh tr\u01b0\u1edbc c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ee3t s\u00f3ng ng\u1eafn v\u00e0 t\u1eadp trung v\u00e0o m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n.<\/p>

              M\u1ed9t \u1ee9ng d\u1ee5ng s\u00e2u h\u01a1n l\u00e0 s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng quy t\u1eafc \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 r\u1ee7i ro v\u00e0 c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i<\/strong> trong c\u00e1c l\u1edbp t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n kh\u00e1c nhau. Gi\u1ea3 s\u1eed b\u1ea1n ph\u00e2n v\u00e2n gi\u1eefa tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu doanh nghi\u1ec7p ch\u1ea5t l\u01b0\u1ee3ng cao (k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn 5%) v\u00e0 c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng (k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn 10%). Quy t\u1eafc 72 ph\u00e1c h\u1ecda s\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng: ti\u1ec1n g\u1ea5p \u0111\u00f4i sau 14.4 n\u0103m v\u1edbi tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu, nh\u01b0ng ch\u1ec9 sau 7.2 n\u0103m v\u1edbi c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu. S\u1ef1 ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch th\u1eddi gian “g\u1ea5p \u0111\u00f4i” n\u00e0y minh h\u1ecda tr\u1ef1c quan cho ph\u1ea7n b\u00f9 r\u1ee7i ro<\/strong> (risk premium) m\u00e0 b\u1ea1n k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng khi ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eadn \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 v\u00e0o k\u00eanh c\u00f3 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng cao h\u01a1n. N\u00f3 tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh m\u1ed9t th\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111o \u0111\u1ecbnh t\u00ednh \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ec3 c\u00e2n nh\u1eafc trong ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n.<\/p>

              Ph\u00e1t Tri\u1ec3n T\u01b0 Duy T\u1eeb Quy T\u1eafc 72: T\u1eeb \u01af\u1edbc T\u00ednh \u0110\u1ebfn Chi\u1ebfn L\u01b0\u1ee3c<\/h2>

              Quy t\u1eafc 72 kh\u00f4ng n\u00ean d\u1eebng l\u1ea1i \u1edf m\u1ed9t m\u1eb9o t\u00ednh nh\u1ea9m. N\u00f3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0 n\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng \u0111\u1ec3 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n m\u1ed9t t\u01b0 duy t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh ch\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ed9ng<\/strong>. Khi \u0111\u00e3 hi\u1ec3u logic \u0111\u1eb1ng sau, b\u1ea1n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u1eb7t ra nh\u1eefng c\u00e2u h\u1ecfi chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u01a1n.<\/p>

              L\u00e0m th\u1ebf n\u00e0o \u0111\u1ec3 r\u00fat ng\u1eafn th\u1eddi gian g\u1ea5p \u0111\u00f4i ti\u1ec1n?<\/strong> T\u1eeb c\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c 72 \/ l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t, ta th\u1ea5y ch\u1ec9 c\u00f3 hai c\u00e1ch: t\u0103ng t\u1eed s\u1ed1 (kh\u00f4ng kh\u1ea3 thi) ho\u1eb7c t\u0103ng m\u1eabu s\u1ed1 \u2013 t\u1ee9c l\u00e0 t\u0103ng t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng<\/strong>. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn vi\u1ec7c nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u \u0111\u1ec3 t\u00ecm c\u00e1c c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 t\u1ed1t h\u01a1n, ho\u1eb7c c\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n k\u1ef9 n\u0103ng qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd danh m\u1ee5c. Tuy nhi\u00ean, n\u00f3 c\u0169ng \u0111i k\u00e8m c\u1ea3nh b\u00e1o: l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng cao h\u01a1n th\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111i \u0111\u00f4i v\u1edbi r\u1ee7i ro cao h\u01a1n. Quy t\u1eafc 72, trong ng\u1eef c\u1ea3nh n\u00e0y, gi\u00fap b\u1ea1n \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng s\u1ef1 \u0111\u00e1nh \u0111\u1ed5i gi\u1eefa r\u1ee7i ro v\u00e0 th\u1eddi gian \u0111\u1ea1t m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau.<\/p>

              H\u01a1n n\u1eefa, b\u1ea1n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 “\u0111\u1ea3o ng\u01b0\u1ee3c” quy t\u1eafc \u0111\u1ec3 tr\u1ea3 l\u1eddi c\u00e2u h\u1ecfi: “T\u00f4i c\u1ea7n l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t bao nhi\u00eau \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ea1t m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh trong khung th\u1eddi gian mong mu\u1ed1n?”<\/strong>. V\u00ed d\u1ee5, b\u1ea1n mu\u1ed1n ti\u1ec1n \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 g\u1ea5p \u0111\u00f4i trong 8 n\u0103m \u0111\u1ec3 mua nh\u00e0. \u00c1p d\u1ee5ng ng\u01b0\u1ee3c: 72 \/ 8 n\u0103m = 9%. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y cho b\u1ea1n m\u1ed9t con s\u1ed1 m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3: b\u1ea1n c\u1ea7n t\u00ecm m\u1ed9t ph\u01b0\u01a1ng \u00e1n \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng sinh l\u1eddi trung b\u00ecnh 9%\/n\u0103m. N\u1ebfu ch\u1ec9 g\u1eedi ti\u1ebft ki\u1ec7m v\u1edbi l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t 6%, b\u1ea1n bi\u1ebft ngay r\u1eb1ng m\u00ecnh kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ea1t m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau \u0111\u00f3 v\u00e0 c\u1ea7n \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch (ho\u1eb7c t\u0103ng th\u1eddi gian, ho\u1eb7c t\u0103ng s\u1ed1 ti\u1ec1n g\u1ed1c ban \u0111\u1ea7u, ho\u1eb7c t\u00ecm k\u00eanh \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 kh\u00e1c).<\/p>

              B\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch n\u00e0y, Quy t\u1eafc 72 chuy\u1ec3n t\u1eeb m\u1ed9t ph\u00e9p t\u00ednh th\u1ee5 \u0111\u1ed9ng sang m\u1ed9t c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 thi\u1ebft l\u1eadp m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau v\u00e0 \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 t\u00ednh kh\u1ea3 thi<\/strong> c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh c\u00e1 nh\u00e2n.<\/p>

              K\u1ebft lu\u1eadn<\/h2>

              Quy t\u1eafc 72 th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t vi\u00ean ng\u1ecdc nh\u1ecf trong kho t\u00e0ng ki\u1ebfn th\u1ee9c t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh c\u00e1 nh\u00e2n. S\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh c\u1ee7a n\u00f3 kh\u00f4ng n\u1eb1m \u1edf \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c tuy\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed1i, m\u00e0 \u1edf kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng bi\u1ebfn nh\u1eefng kh\u00e1i ni\u1ec7m to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc tr\u1eebu t\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u1ec1 l\u00e3i k\u00e9p th\u00e0nh m\u1ed9t h\u00ecnh \u1ea3nh c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3, d\u1ec5 hi\u1ec3u v\u00e0 d\u1ec5 nh\u1edb<\/strong>. N\u00f3 cung c\u1ea5p m\u1ed9t ng\u00f4n ng\u1eef chung \u0111\u1ec3 m\u1ecdi ng\u01b0\u1eddi, t\u1eeb ng\u01b0\u1eddi m\u1edbi b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u \u0111\u1ebfn nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 d\u00e0y d\u1ea1n, c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 th\u1ea3o lu\u1eadn v\u1ec1 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a th\u1eddi gian v\u00e0 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ebfn s\u1ef1 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n c\u1ee7a t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n. Quan tr\u1ecdng h\u01a1n, n\u00f3 nh\u1eafc nh\u1edf ch\u00fang ta v\u1ec1 b\u00e0i h\u1ecdc then ch\u1ed1t: s\u1ef1 ki\u00ean nh\u1eabn v\u00e0 b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u s\u1edbm l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 thay th\u1ebf \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c tr\u00ean h\u00e0nh tr\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u1ef1 do t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh. H\u00e3y s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng quy t\u1eafc 72 nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t la b\u00e0n \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u01b0\u1edbng, nh\u01b0ng lu\u00f4n nh\u1edb r\u1eb1ng, \u0111\u1ec3 h\u00e0nh tr\u00ecnh th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng, b\u1ea1n c\u1ea7n m\u1ed9t b\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ed3 chi ti\u1ebft h\u01a1n v\u1edbi s\u1ef1 hi\u1ec3u bi\u1ebft s\u00e2u v\u1ec1 r\u1ee7i ro, \u0111a d\u1ea1ng h\u00f3a v\u00e0 k\u1ef7 lu\u1eadt b\u1ea3n th\u00e2n.<\/p>

              C\u00e2u h\u1ecfi th\u01b0\u1eddng g\u1eb7p (FAQ)<\/h2>

              Quy t\u1eafc 72 c\u00f3 \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c cho l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t th\u00e1ng ho\u1eb7c qu\u00fd kh\u00f4ng?<\/h3>

              \u0110\u01b0\u1ee3c, nh\u01b0ng c\u1ea7n \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh. Quy t\u1eafc 72 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c thi\u1ebft k\u1ebf cho l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t n\u0103m. N\u1ebfu b\u1ea1n c\u00f3 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t th\u00e1ng (v\u00ed d\u1ee5 1%\/th\u00e1ng), tr\u01b0\u1edbc ti\u00ean c\u1ea7n quy \u0111\u1ed5i th\u00e0nh l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t n\u0103m: 1% x 12 th\u00e1ng = 12%\/n\u0103m. Sau \u0111\u00f3 \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng b\u00ecnh th\u01b0\u1eddng: 72 \/ 12 = 6 n\u0103m. L\u01b0u \u00fd, \u0111\u00e2y l\u00e0 ph\u00e9p t\u00ednh g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00fang v\u00e0 gi\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u00e3i \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c gh\u00e9p h\u00e0ng th\u00e1ng.<\/p>

              T\u00f4i n\u00ean d\u00f9ng Quy t\u1eafc 72 hay c\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c logarit ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c?<\/h3>

              T\u00f9y m\u1ee5c \u0111\u00edch. D\u00f9ng Quy t\u1eafc 72 cho \u01b0\u1edbc t\u00ednh nhanh, tr\u1ef1c quan v\u00e0 th\u1ea3o lu\u1eadn \u00fd t\u01b0\u1edfng<\/strong>. Khi c\u1ea7n t\u00ednh to\u00e1n ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c cho c\u00e1c quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u1edbn (nh\u01b0 l\u1eadp k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch ngh\u1ec9 h\u01b0u), b\u1ea1n n\u00ean s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng c\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc \u0111\u1ea7y \u0111\u1ee7 (N = ln(2) \/ ln(1 + r)) ho\u1eb7c c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 nh\u01b0 Excel, m\u00e1y t\u00ednh t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh \u0111\u1ec3 c\u00f3 k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c nh\u1ea5t.<\/p>

              Quy t\u1eafc 72 c\u00f3 d\u00f9ng \u0111\u1ec3 t\u00ednh th\u1eddi gian n\u1ee3 g\u1ea5p \u0111\u00f4i \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c kh\u00f4ng?<\/h3>

              Ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3, v\u00e0 \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t \u1ee9ng d\u1ee5ng quan tr\u1ecdng \u0111\u1ec3 c\u1ea3nh b\u00e1o v\u1ec1 r\u1ee7i ro n\u1ee3 n\u1ea7n. N\u1ebfu b\u1ea1n vay ti\u1ec1n v\u1edbi l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t 24%\/n\u0103m (v\u00ed d\u1ee5 t\u1eeb t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng \u0111en), \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng quy t\u1eafc 72: 72 \/ 24 = 3. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y c\u00f3 ngh\u0129a kho\u1ea3n n\u1ee3 c\u1ee7a b\u1ea1n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u0103ng g\u1ea5p \u0111\u00f4i ch\u1ec9 sau 3 n\u0103m n\u1ebfu kh\u00f4ng tr\u1ea3 l\u00e3i v\u00e0 g\u1ed1c, minh h\u1ecda m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch kinh ho\u00e0ng v\u1ec1 s\u1ef1 nguy hi\u1ec3m c\u1ee7a l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t cao.<\/p>

              L\u00e0m sao \u0111\u1ec3 t\u00ednh th\u1eddi gian ti\u1ec1n t\u0103ng g\u1ea5p 3 ho\u1eb7c 4 l\u1ea7n b\u1eb1ng quy t\u1eafc t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1?<\/h3>

              B\u1ea1n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c “quy t\u1eafc” bi\u1ebfn th\u1ec3. Thay v\u00ec d\u00f9ng s\u1ed1 72 cho m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau g\u1ea5p \u0111\u00f4i (2 l\u1ea7n), b\u1ea1n d\u00f9ng c\u00e1c s\u1ed1 kh\u00e1c. \u0110\u1ec3 \u01b0\u1edbc t\u00ednh th\u1eddi gian g\u1ea5p 3 l\u1ea7n, d\u00f9ng Quy t\u1eafc 115<\/strong> (115 \/ l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t). \u0110\u1ec3 g\u1ea5p 4 l\u1ea7n, d\u00f9ng Quy t\u1eafc 144<\/strong>. V\u00ed d\u1ee5, v\u1edbi l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t 8%, th\u1eddi gian \u01b0\u1edbc t\u00ednh \u0111\u1ec3 ti\u1ec1n g\u1ea5p 3 l\u1ea7n l\u00e0 115 \/ 8 \u2248 14.4 n\u0103m, v\u00e0 g\u1ea5p 4 l\u1ea7n l\u00e0 144 \/ 8 = 18 n\u0103m.<\/p>

              Quy t\u1eafc 72 c\u00f3 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c khi l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t r\u1ea5t cao (tr\u00ean 20%) ho\u1eb7c r\u1ea5t th\u1ea5p (d\u01b0\u1edbi 4%) kh\u00f4ng?<\/h3>

              \u0110\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c s\u1ebd gi\u1ea3m. \u1ede l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t r\u1ea5t cao, quy t\u1eafc 72 c\u00f3 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng \u01b0\u1edbc t\u00ednh th\u1eddi gian d\u00e0i h\u01a1n th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf. \u1ede l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t r\u1ea5t th\u1ea5p, n\u00f3 l\u1ea1i \u01b0\u1edbc t\u00ednh th\u1eddi gian ng\u1eafn h\u01a1n m\u1ed9t ch\u00fat. \u0110\u00e2y l\u00e0 l\u00fd do c\u00f3 c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn th\u1ec3 nh\u01b0 Quy t\u1eafc 69 hay 70 cho \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c cao h\u01a1n v\u1edbi l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t th\u1ea5p v\u00e0 gh\u00e9p l\u00e3i li\u00ean t\u1ee5c. Tuy nhi\u00ean, v\u1edbi m\u1ee5c \u0111\u00edch \u01b0\u1edbc l\u01b0\u1ee3ng nhanh trong ph\u1ea1m vi l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t ph\u1ed5 bi\u1ebfn (4%-15%), quy t\u1eafc 72 v\u1eabn r\u1ea5t h\u1eefu \u00edch.<\/p>

              N\u1ebfu t\u00f4i ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c g\u00f3p th\u00eam ti\u1ec1n \u0111\u1ecbnh k\u1ef3, Quy t\u1eafc 72 c\u00f3 c\u00f2n \u0111\u00fang?<\/h3>

              Kh\u00f4ng ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c. Quy t\u1eafc 72 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c thi\u1ebft k\u1ebf cho m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 ti\u1ec1n g\u1ed1c c\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ecbnh ban \u0111\u1ea7u<\/strong> v\u00e0 ch\u1ec9 c\u00f3 l\u00e3i k\u00e9p t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u00ean n\u00f3. Khi b\u1ea1n ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c g\u00f3p th\u00eam ti\u1ec1n \u0111\u1ecbnh k\u1ef3 (nh\u01b0 trong h\u00ecnh th\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 DCA), s\u1ed1 ti\u1ec1n c\u1ee7a b\u1ea1n s\u1ebd t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng nhanh h\u01a1n nhi\u1ec1u so v\u1edbi \u01b0\u1edbc t\u00ednh t\u1eeb Quy t\u1eafc 72 v\u00ec b\u1ea1n c\u00f3 th\u00eam d\u00f2ng ti\u1ec1n m\u1edbi. Trong tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p n\u00e0y, b\u1ea1n c\u1ea7n s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng c\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c t\u00ednh gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t chu\u1ed7i ti\u1ec1n \u0111\u1ec1u (annuity) \u0111\u1ec3 c\u00f3 k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c.<\/p>

              L\u00e0m th\u1ebf n\u00e0o \u0111\u1ec3 k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t v\u00e0o Quy t\u1eafc 72?<\/h3>

              \u0110\u1ec3 c\u00f3 c\u00e1i nh\u00ecn th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf, b\u1ea1n n\u00ean s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t th\u1ef1c<\/strong> (real interest rate) thay v\u00ec l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t danh ngh\u0129a (nominal interest rate). L\u00e3i su\u1ea5t th\u1ef1c \u2248 L\u00e3i su\u1ea5t danh ngh\u0129a – T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng. V\u00ed d\u1ee5, \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 v\u1edbi l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn danh ngh\u0129a 10%\/n\u0103m, nh\u01b0ng l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t l\u00e0 3%, th\u00ec l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t th\u1ef1c kho\u1ea3ng 7%. \u00c1p d\u1ee5ng Quy t\u1eafc 72 v\u1edbi 7%: 72 \/ 7 \u2248 10.3 n\u0103m. \u0110\u00e2y l\u00e0 \u01b0\u1edbc t\u00ednh th\u1eddi gian \u0111\u1ec3 s\u1ee9c mua<\/strong> c\u1ee7a s\u1ed1 ti\u1ec1n \u0111\u00f3 t\u0103ng g\u1ea5p \u0111\u00f4i, m\u1ed9t ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 quan tr\u1ecdng h\u01a1n cho m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n.<\/p>\n\n